Canadian Dollar Remains at Low Around April 2025 Amid Delicate Retail Sales and Lower Oil Prices

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USD/CAD trades higher on Friday despite moderate weakness in the US dollar (USD), as weaker-than-expected Canadian retail sales data weighs on the Canadian dollar (CAD). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.4170, its highest level since April 2025.

On Friday, Statistics Canada said retail sales rose 0.5% in April, compared with a 0.9% gain in March and slightly below the consensus estimate of 0.6%. Excluding cars, retail sales rose just 0.1%, missing forecasts of 0.7%, while the March reading was revised down to 1.2% from 1.4%.

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The CAD is also under pressure from the diverging monetary policy outlook between the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). At this week’s policy meeting, the Fed maintained its commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target, while nine of 19 policymakers predicted at least one interest rate hike this year.

The hawkish tilt comes as higher oil prices have pushed up U.S. inflation, with the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerating to 4.2%, the highest level since April 2023.

After the meeting, markets priced in a 70% chance of a September interest rate hike, according to CME FedWatch data, providing novel support for the dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is around 100.81, after hitting 101.13 earlier in the day, its highest level since May 2025.

In turn, inflation pressures in Canada remain relatively subdued. At last week’s meeting, the Bank of Canada (BoC) said U.S. tariffs support lower rates, although persistently high energy prices may justify “further increases in the policy rate.”

However, as oil prices fell following the U.S.-Iran truce, the case for interest rate increases weakened. Lower oil prices also enhance pressure on commodities-linked Loonie, given Canada’s status as a major oil exporter. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is around $75.50 per barrel, the lowest level since March 5.

Today’s Canadian dollar price

The table below shows the current percentage change of the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the major listed currencies. The Canadian dollar was strongest against the Swiss franc.

USD EUR GBP JPY BOOR AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.05% -0.09% -0.05% 0.23% 0.01% 0.33% 0.37%
EUR 0.05% -0.04% 0.00% 0.29% 0.07% 0.37% 0.42%
GBP 0.09% 0.04% 0.04% 0.32% 0.13% 0.43% 0.47%
JPY 0.05% 0.00% -0.04% 0.28% 0.09% 0.37% 0.41%
BOOR -0.23% -0.29% -0.32% -0.28% -0.17% 0.09% 0.13%
AUD -0.01% -0.07% -0.13% -0.09% 0.17% 0.29% 0.35%
NZD -0.33% -0.37% -0.43% -0.37% -0.09% -0.29% 0.03%
CHF -0.37% -0.42% -0.47% -0.41% -0.13% -0.35% -0.03%

The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select the Canadian dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (basis)/USD (quote).

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