EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls are struggling to break past support near 1.1600

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The Euro (EUR) has given back its daily gains against the US Dollar (USD) and at the time of writing is virtually unchanged at 1.1575. EUR/USD rebounded from two-month lows at 1.1500 but failed to break above the lower end of the previous three-week trading range in the 1.1580-1.1590 area

Moderate risk appetite keeps the euro above previous lows, and market sentiment is buoyed by press reports on progress in the peace process between the US and Iran. US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that a final agreement could be signed in the coming days, although Tehran is more cautious and warns that a final decision has not yet been made.

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The ECB took a rather hawkish rate hike

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 0.25% for the first time in almost three years and revised its inflation forecasts for the next few years. This was seen as a signal that further tightening of monetary policy was possible and provided additional support for the euro.

In the US, Producer Price Index (PPI) data was mixed. Headline inflation accelerated to 6.5% annually, the fastest level in over three years, while core PPI remained steady at 4.9%, contrary to expectations. Later in the day, the Michigan U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to show that high costs of living are keeping consumer morale near historic lows and are unlikely to provide significant support for the U.S. dollar

Technical Analysis: Bulls remain confined to the previous support area

EUR/USD is trading at 1.1574, maintaining a moderate bullish bias for the foreseeable future, even though the trading range reached a limit in behind schedule May and early April. Momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart remain moderately bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering in the mid-50s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) being marginally positive.

The bulls need to break and confirm the mentioned resistance in the area of ​​1.1580-1.1590, which has held the bears several times over the last three weeks. If these levels are breached, attention will focus on the June 4 and 5 highs near 1.1645, and the behind schedule May highs at 1.1685.

On Friday, declines remained narrow above 1.1555 so far, keeping two-month lows around 1.1500 at a relatively unthreatening distance. An unlikely move below this level puts the March 19 and 30 lows around 1.1445 in the spotlight.

(The technical analysis for this story was written with the aid of an AI tool.)

Today’s US dollar price

The table below shows the current percentage change of the United States Dollar (USD) against the major listed currencies. The US dollar was strongest against the Swiss franc.

USD EUR GBP JPY BOOR AUD NZD CHF
USD 0.02% 0.00% 0.10% 0.10% 0.08% 0.09% 0.13%
EUR -0.02% -0.02% 0.09% 0.09% 0.08% 0.06% 0.11%
GBP -0.00% 0.02% 0.13% 0.11% 0.06% 0.08% 0.14%
JPY -0.10% -0.09% -0.13% -0.01% -0.04% -0.03% 0.00%
BOOR -0.10% -0.09% -0.11% 0.01% -0.03% -0.03% 0.02%
AUD -0.08% -0.08% -0.06% 0.04% 0.03% -0.01% 0.04%
NZD -0.09% -0.06% -0.08% 0.03% 0.03% 0.01% 0.05%
CHF -0.13% -0.11% -0.14% -0.01% -0.02% -0.04% -0.05%

The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select the US dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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