Bitcoin (BTC) has met two of three key conditions to trigger another “BTC price surge,” according to a fresh analysis.

Key Points:

• According to the latest findings, Bitcoin whales on Hyperliquid and Bitfinex already indicate the beginning of an upward trend in the BTC price.
• Bitcoin markets now need demand to return in the form of Coinbase and Kimchi Premium.
• Other prerequisites for a bear market are also being created.

Bitcoin price recovery depends on demand in the US and Korea

Bitcoin whale traders are laying the groundwork for BTC prices to fall, even for BTC/USD hit four-month lows.

In Post X on Friday, trader CW confirmed that Bitcoin whales on both Hyperliquid and Bitfinex signal a market rebound.

Long BTC/USD positions on Bitfinex. Source: CW/X

CW notes that Hyperliquid whales have taken a “bullish stance” in the market, while on Bitfinex long positions have come to an end. The latter is a classic signal that an uptrend is about to occur.

“All that remains is for Kimchi Premium and Coinbase Premium to take a positive turn,” he commented.

Coinbase Premium is the price difference between Coinbase and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs, which has been mostly negative in 2026.

Coinbase Premium Bitcoin Index. Source: CryptoQuant

The negative premium reflects feeble demand in the US, while the Kimchi premium monitors the South Korean stock sector.

Once demand returns to normal, Bitcoin will have a better chance of returning to a sustained upward trend.

CW admitted that the price of Kimchi Premium has already “dropped significantly” compared to earlier this week.

Bitcoin is beginning its final “rebound” phase.

How Cointelegraph reportedthe general consensus favors the next phase of macroeconomic trough for BTC/USD.

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This week, the pair touched down on a key bearish trend line in the form of the 200-week plain moving average (SMA) – another essential component of a bottom formation.

“Bitcoin has only just started to move below the 200-week SMA,” trader and analyst at Rekt Capital he emphasized to X followers on Friday.

“The significance of this is that historical Bear Market Bottoming Out patterns began to develop through such deviations.”

BTC/USD weekly chart with 200SMA. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Previously, trader Lewiatan described BTC’s price action as copying the 2022 bear market “almost perfectly.”