According to Galaxy Digital’s head of research, the July 4 target date for introducing cryptocurrency market structure legislation in the Senate now appears less certain.

The Senate calendar creates a bottleneck

Alex Thorn improved his probability estimates for passage of the CLARITY Act in 2026 from 75% to 60%, citing a Senate schedule that is increasingly crowded with competing priorities.

Next week’s agenda is expected to be largely taken up by FISA-related matters after a failed reauthorization vote, leaving little room for developments in cryptocurrency regulations.

Thorn said political will is no longer an obstacle – support for the bill has not waned. The problem is time.

I just sent this note to clients, lowering my chances of passing the 2026 Transparency Act from 75% immediately after the markup to 60% today

In May, I said the Senate calendar was one of the biggest obstacles, and that picture has only gotten worse. last night the FISA re-authentication vote failed, so now… pic.twitter.com/2EcxMb3Hwh

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) June 5, 2026

Unresolved issues raise latency

Two controversial issues remain unresolved: the ethical principles of the legislator and the illegal financial provisions related to the bill. Neither has been resolved, and the lack of movement on both fronts has further complicated the path forward.

Despite the lowered odds, Thorn said he remains positive about the bill’s eventual chances of passing, although he cautioned that the timeline is currently more fluid than many had expected.

The CLARITY Act is widely considered the most consequential cryptocurrency legislation currently pending in Congress. Its main goal is to resolve a long-running dispute between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over who regulates what in the digital asset space.

Under the proposal, tokens classified as commodities would be supervised by the CFTC, while those considered securities would remain with the SEC – a distinction that would change the way exchanges operate and the compliance requirements that apply to crypto projects.

Proponents argue that federal clarity on these borders would reduce regulatory uncertainty and prevent cryptocurrency development from migrating abroad.

A window that can be closed

Senator Cynthia Lummis had previously indicated July 4 as the date for the start of legislative work on the market structure in the Senate.

The revised Thorn number puts pressure on this informal target. His rating reflects schedule constraints, not a change in how lawmakers view the bill itself.

For cryptocurrency stakeholders looking for regulatory certainty, the revised outlook points to a potentially longer path to comprehensive legislation.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView