Bitcoin’s recovery efforts continue to be judged by the larger structure that has controlled price action for months. An fascinating technical analysis of the daily candlestick chart shows that Bitcoin continues to follow a descending channel, with each major bounce ending near the upper diagonal and each major selloff finding a reaction near the lower boundary.

The the last rejection on the block The main target has now become $83,100 in May, with Bitcoin now moving back to the lower half of the channel where the final price the bottom can wait.

Bitcoin’s descending channel continues to control the larger trend

After eight months of a correction path defined by lower highs and lower lows from $126,000, Bitcoin shows no signs of deviation. The daily candlestick chart shows that Bitcoin has entered a broad descending channel that has remained unchanged over these eight months.

The upper boundary acted as resistance each time Bitcoin attempted a stronger recovery, first around the lower high of $97,855 and later around the lower high of $83,156. Each rejection keeps the larger bearish structure alive. The lower limit was also essential. Bitcoin previously reacted near $82,167 before rebounding to its first major lower high before falling again to around $60,000 in early February 2026.

The rejection from the resistance level at $83,156 in May also fits into the same pattern. Bitcoin is currently down more than 12% since the rejection and opened in June at around $73,670.

Now that Bitcoin is trending down, the prediction is that next move down may not be another regular lower low. The projection according to a crypto analyst named NoName on X places the projected end of the channel near $51,291, which can also be seen as a possible bottom of the cycle.

Prediction markets favor $60,000 over $100,000

There are many technical perspectives predicting a further bottom before Bitcoin starts a fresh rally. These forecasts also coincide with a separate sentiment signal from forecast markets.

First and foremost, Kalshi Crypto Prediction Markets currently has A 60% suggested chance of Bitcoin hitting $60,000 before $100,000, which means crypto participants are currently placing more importance on another major move down before a six-figure bounce

Kalshi also gives Bitcoin only A 34% chance of returning above $100,000 by January 2027, which is a major change from early 2026 when the market priced in a 94% implied probability of BTC trading above $100,000 by mid-year.

Bitcoin would still need to lose essential support zones before this deeper target becomes realistic. The first test is whether the seller can keep the price above middle of the channel at USD 70,000 and preventing another rebound above USD 78,000 and USD 83,000.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com