ING’s chief economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, notes that Taiwan’s April trade data showed slower-than-expected growth in exports and imports, and the trade surplus fell to $14.35 billion. Semiconductor and machinery exports remained mighty, while higher oil prices began to drive up the value of imports. ING continues to expect mighty trade momentum and sees upside risks to its 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast of 8.2% y/y.
Exports do not meet forecasts, but the dynamics persists
“Taiwan’s export growth slowed to 39.0% y/y in April, down from 61.8% y/y in March, well below market forecasts for the month.”
“One area where Taiwan continues to see positive signs is the export price index, which accelerates for the eighth consecutive month to 18.0% y/y, reaching a multi-year high. As long as demand for top-end AI chips remains solid, Taiwan’s trade prospects remain strong.”
“Higher energy prices will likely translate into an increase in Taiwan’s imports.”
“While April’s data was the first lack of Taiwan trade data in some time, both exports and imports continue to grow strongly, and export orders data suggest this momentum is expected to continue for at least some time. Still, export growth could moderate towards the end of this year, particularly in the face of more challenging base effects, especially in the fourth quarter.”
“Despite this, Taiwan is well positioned for another strong year of economic growth this year, and after a strong start to the year, we believe risks are still balanced towards upside for our current 2026 GDP forecast of 8.2% y/y.”
(This article was created with the lend a hand of an artificial intelligence tool and has been reviewed by an editor.)
