The attempt to recover Bitcoin was successful again above $80,000 for the first time since slow January 2026, giving bulls reason to argue that the worst of the recent correction is over. However, one cryptocurrency analyst believes that this move is heading directly to a level that could determine how May ends for BTC.
In a technical outlook shared on X, cryptocurrency analyst Leshka warned that Bitcoin will likely close May in the red, pointing to a bear flag structure appearing on the daily chart.
Why Bitcoin will close May in the red
Leshka’s outlook for Bitcoin is based on its price action from the February landfill. The daily candlestick chart shows BTC bouncing in an ascending channel, with the price rising from the $60,000 region to the $80,000 range at the time of writing. This recovery looks constructive as the move has caused Bitcoin to print higher lows and higher highs from its February low.
However, Leszek interprets the same structure differently. According to the analyst, the upward channel is currently a bear flag forming. A bear flag usually appears when price bounces higher in a controlled channel after a immense decline, only to break below the structure and continue falling.
As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin’s recent development is shown by pressing on the upper boundary of the rising channel and this is roughly the same area where the 200-day moving average is located. Interestingly, it has already been seven months for Bitcoin no daily closing above moving average, making it the main line between a rising recovery and a confirmed trend reversal.
As of this writing, the 200 MA is priced at around $82,000. The prospects here depend on how Bitcoin the price reacts to this level. The forecast bear path proposed by the analyst shows Bitcoin making a final push towards the resistance confluence/200 MA before moving back down, losing the channel and returning to the $58,000 to $56,000 range by June.
The May BTC record faces a earnest test
Bitcoin has already increased by 7.11% in May 2026. Bitcoin’s monthly return table shows that May was often one of the stronger months, with an average growth of 18.7% and a median return of 8.32% in previous years. Bitcoin’s May price action has been positive over the past two years, with the cryptocurrency gaining 11.1% in both May 2024 and May 2025.
This historical strength makes this prediction more fascinating. The problem is that the rally is now entering right into the resistance zone where the 200-day moving average is located.
Previous May red closes have also occurred during challenging market phases, including a 35.4% decline in May 2021, a 15.9% decline in May 2022, and a 7.10% decline in May 2023. Leshka believes that 2026 could join this ranks if the current move to the top of the rising channel fails.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
