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It’s been an amazing three years for FTSE100 index. Previously it was only 16% higher than before the global financial crisis in 2007/08.
Of course, the index has always paid dividends, significantly increasing total return. But compared to technology-intensive devices S&P500Footsie price returns have been pretty dismal until recently.
As such, it has acquired a number of unflattering names, including the “Jurassic Park index” and the “Sideways index.” I even remember one article calling it something like a “corporate nursing home” because of the ancient economy banks, miners and oil companies. Ouch.
But what a difference the last three years have made. During this time, the FTSE 100 index moved significantly higher, generating an annual rate of return of 13.56% (including the reinvestment of dividends).
By comparison, this means a £5,000 investment you made three years ago in a FTSE 100 index tracker will now be worth around £7,320 (net of fees). This is a significant improvement compared to previous years.
What has changed?
Looking at the chart, there has been a clear upward shake-up over the last two years. A few things occurred to me that might have contributed to this:
- President Trump’s volatile and unpredictable policy
- Falling interest rates
- Rotation from some US growth stocks to UK value shares
- Rising energy and commodity prices (beneficial for oil and mining stocks)
- Bank stocks are back in fashion
Another powerful industry that has gained popularity over the last year or so is the preference for HALO (weighty asset, low aging) stocks. This means companies with real assets that are not at risk of artificial intelligence (AI) becoming obsolete.
So these would be “Jurassic Park” type companies, such as the arms giant BAE systems (an escalate of 52% in two years) and a supremo supermarket Tesco (+66%).
Perhaps the best company is HALO National Networkmonopoly on energy transmission. You will not disturb the physical transmission of electricity with a chatbot.
Indeed, the surge in AI-enabled data centers will likely make the National Grid more relevant than ever. Typically a sleepy stock, it’s now up 34% in the last two years.
Damaged software
The other side of the HALO trade is software and data companies, which have seen massive sell-offs over the past 12 months. They belong to them Right move (-39.4%), Autotrader (-38%), Sage (-25.3%) i Experiment (-25.6%).
Another is RELAX (LSE:REL), which I think is a stock worth considering in the FTSE 100. It’s down 33% in the last year.
RELX sells data processing and analysis tools to professionals including lawyers, scientists and banks. The large risk is that modern AI models will ultimately reduce the value of this data, potentially reducing customer numbers and weakening pricing power.
However, a recent trade statement stated: “RELX started the year well across all four business areas and continues to deliver powerful revenue and earnings growth, as well as powerful modern sales“
Management has consistently argued that AI is an opportunity rather than a threat, with its own AI tools attracting greater customer spending, including on leading legal research platform LexisNexis.
After the crash, the company’s shares were trading at just 17 times futures earnings. All 15 City analysts covering RELX have rated the deal a buy at 2,678p, with the average target price almost 30% higher.
