Bitcoin Magazine Pro chief analyst Matt Crosby says investors who rely on Bitcoin’s established four-year cycle may be relying on a framework that no longer fits the market. In his latest analysis, Crosby argued that structural changes in supply, institutional demand and macro liquidity now matter more than the aged halving playbook.

The aged Bitcoin cycle playbook is falling apart

Crosby core law is plain: Bitcoin can already be traded in a different regime. Pointing to the fact that there are currently over 20 million BTC in circulation, he stated that over 95% of the total eventual supply has already been issued, reducing the relative shock value associated with each novel halving. Historically, halvings have cut Bitcoin’s inflation rate in half and helped shape the familiar pattern of post-halving booms, then declines, then recovers in the next cycle. Crosby said that pattern may now be losing steam.

“A lot of people look at previous cycles as the potential of what Bitcoin will do this time,” he said. “We can’t hit a bottom anytime soon. We have to wait until at least a year has passed since that peak because that’s what we’ve always done.” Crosby rejected that logic, adding that he had “concrete evidence” why the aged cycle should no longer be treated as a base case.

He believes that most of this evidence comes from demand. Crosby highlighted the scale of accumulation currently coming from huge buyers of treasuries and spot Bitcoin ETFs, saying the strategy alone is acquiring more than 1,000 BTC per day, or roughly two to three times Bitcoin’s daily inflation rate. He also pointed to a recent day when spot ETFs bought nearly $750 million worth of Bitcoin. He argued that this type of persistent demand is significantly different from the market structure observed in earlier cycles.

Instead of relying on calendar cycle models or seasonality, Crosby said investors should pay attention to liquidity and broader macro conditions. He cited a 96.26% long-term correlation between the S&P 500 and global M2 liquidity, as well as a 93% correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P over a 15-year period on a monthly basis. Bitcoin itself, he said, shows an 85% correlation with global liquidity, reinforcing the view that liquidity expansion and contraction remain the dominant force behind major moves.

Crosby also questioned the usefulness of seasonality in election cycles. While Bitcoin’s mid-term years have seen high average returns at times, he noted that the median returns are negative and the sample size remains diminutive. Gold and stocks do not follow the same type of tidy pattern of political cycles. According to Crosby, seasonality is a frail basis for market calls.

He also argued that Bitcoin looks different when compared to gold rather than the US dollar. Based on this, he concluded that Bitcoin may have peaked in behind schedule 2024 and has already been in a relative bear phase for over a year, potentially bottoming out around February 2026. This, in his view, is another sign that the classic four-year cycle has already begun to break down.

Crosby said more useful signals come from chain and macroeconomic indicators. He pointed to Coin Days Destroyed and Value Days Destroyed as tools that have historically marked major highs and attractive accumulation zones, and said Bitcoin has recently re-entered an area that was previously associated with undervaluation. At the same time, he noted that US consumer sentiment fell to 47.6% in April 2026, which he described as the lowest reading on record, while producer expectations and liquidity conditions began to improve.

“At some point, it’s inevitable that this four-year cycle will break,” Crosby said. “We’re seeing new liquidity coming into the system. We’re seeing the S&P 500 rally. We’re seeing more positivity in the outlook for the manufacturing sector, and we’re seeing incredible negativity not only in Bitcoin but also in equity market sentiment.”

His conclusion was not that the risk had disappeared. The idea was that the market could no longer reward waiting for “any date on the calendar.” If Crosby is right, Bitcoin’s next substantial move will be shaped less by inherited knowledge of cycles and more by stronger forces of liquidity, positioning and persistent institutional demand.

At the time of publication, the price of BTC was $78,144.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com