The AUD/USD pair is gaining momentum near 0.7155 during Thursday’s early Asian session. US President Donald Trump’s extension of the ceasefire with Iran is reviving risk appetite, supporting the Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD). The preliminary reading of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be released later on Thursday.
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the United States was extending the ceasefire with Iran at Pakistan’s request while waiting for a unified Iranian proposal. This situation alleviates fears of a renewed conflict that caused a acute augment in energy prices.
However, tensions remain high as Tehran holds tight to the Strait of Hormuz, controlling passage through the trade route and shelling ships. Iranian parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be “impossible” while the United States and Israel have committed “flagrant” ceasefire violations, including a US naval blockade.
Signs of a prolonged war in the Middle East could strengthen a safe-haven currency such as the dollar and have an adverse impact on the pair.
Data released by S&P Global on Thursday showed the flash reading of Australia’s S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 51.0 in April, up from 49.8 in March. Meanwhile, the Australian S&P Global Services PMI rose to 50.3 in April from a previous reading of 46.3, while the Composite PMI rose to 50.1 in April from 46.6 previously.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most vital factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). As Australia is a resource-rich country, another key factor influencing price is the price of its largest export, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as Australia’s inflation, its dynamics and its trade balance. Market sentiment – whether investors take on riskier assets (risk-on) or look for unthreatening havens (risk-off) – also matters, with positive risk for the AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian dollar (AUD) by setting the interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This affects the level of interest rates throughout the economy. The RBA’s main goal is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low ones. The RBA may also exploit quantitative easing and tightening to influence lending conditions, the former being AUD negative and the latter AUD positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner, so the health of the Chinese economy has a major impact on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy does well, it buys more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, increasing demand for the AUD and increasing its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as brisk as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data therefore often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its pairs.
Iron ore is Australia’s largest export, worth $118 billion a year in 2021 figures, with China being the main buyer. The price of iron ore can therefore influence the Australian dollar. Generally speaking, if the price of iron ore increases, the AUD also increases, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is true when the price of iron ore falls. Higher iron ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive trade balance for Australia, which is also positive for the AUD.
The trade balance, or the difference between what a country earns from exports and what it pays for imports, is another factor that can affect the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces a highly sought after export, then its currency will only appreciate in value as a result of the excess demand created by foreign buyers wanting to buy its exports compared to spending on import purchases. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens the AUD, and the effect is opposite if the trade balance is negative.
