John Oliver, HBO host Last week tonightfor the latest weekly deep dive on his show, he took aim at prediction market platforms.
On Sunday’s broadcast of HBO’s “Oliver.” discussed some negligible event contracts on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, including bets on whether members of the Trump administration would utilize certain words in public appearances to controversial company partnerships with news organizations.
In particular, the host questioned Donald Trump Jr.’s reporting. with both platforms – Kalshi Advisor and Polymarket – and that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) “appears not to even try” to block contracts for events involving terrorism, assassinations and war under Michael Selig.
Throughout much of the show, Oliver discussed how “it’s incredibly easy for individuals to manipulate results,” quoting Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, who dropped a list of cryptocurrency-related words on his Q3 2025 earnings call, which resulted in many Kalshi and Polymarket users winning their bets.
“I’m going to make you a promise tonight,” Oliver said, echoing Armstrong’s statement. “I will never do anything because someone on the Internet placed a bet on it. So you can be sure that if I ever say Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking and Web3, it will not be because I’m trying to move the markets, but because I’m having a stroke.”
While user activity and trading volume on prediction markets have skyrocketed in recent months – expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030 – the controversial betting and legal status of platforms in U.S. states has raised eyebrows among some experts. Gambling authorities in several states are suing companies like Kalshi over alleged illegal sports betting, and Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal and others expect the legal fight to end in the U.S. Supreme Court.
Related: Senate bill to ban sports betting on prediction markets: WSJ
Financial giants looking to enter prediction markets?
In addition to previously announced partnerships with media giants such as CNN, CNBC, Fox News and Dow Jones, conventional financial firms including Charles Schwab and Citadel Securities have recently signaled plans to consider forecasting markets.
Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster said in a call with investors Thursday that the company will take a “close look” at forecasting markets. At a separate event the same day, Citadel Securities CEO Jim Esposito said the company is “fully watching developments” with a potential market entry.
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