The euro (EUR) extends losses against the US dollar (USD) on Tuesday, hitting session lows just above 1.1750 at the time of writing after failing to extend Monday’s gains above 1.1790. Investors adopted a wait-and-see mode, waiting for the publication of data on economic sentiment in the euro zone and developments as a result of peace talks between the US and Iran.
The Wall Street Journal confirmed that Tehran told regional mediators it would send a delegation to Pakistan after threatening to withdraw from the process on Monday following the seizure of an Iranian cargo ship by the US military. In addition, Reuters cited an anonymous American source who said that overall “things are moving forward”, fueling moderate market optimism.
In the eurozone, the ZEW Germany and Eurozone Economic Sentiment Survey is expected to show unfavorable data in April, highlighting the negative economic impact of the energy shock from the conflict in the Middle East.
The German economic sentiment index is expected to deteriorate from -0.5 in March to -5, the weakest reading in 12 months. In the euro zone, the reading improves to -3.6 from -8.5 in the previous month, but is still negative, indicating a negative view of the short-term outlook.
Technical analysis: Sideways consolidation below 1.1800
EUR/USD continues its uptrend from delayed March lows, but recent price action shows some hesitation ahead of the 1.1800 area. Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart also indicate weakening growth momentum.
The relative strength index moved back and forth around the 50 centerline, indicating no obvious deviation. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative, showing, at least for now, a fading upward pressure rather than a decisive downward turn.
On Tuesday, the bulls were confined to the 1.1790 area, which for now closes the path to Friday’s highs around 1.1850. On the other hand, immediate support is found at Monday’s lows near 1.1730, followed by an ascending trendline, currently around 1.1705. A clear break below this area would open the way to the group of support levels between 1.1645 and 1.1675 that held bears on April 8, 9, 10 and 13.
(The technical analysis for this story was written with the aid of an AI tool.)
Economic indicator
ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment
Economic sentiment published by Center for European Economic Research measures the sentiment of institutional investors, reflecting the difference between the share of investors who are sanguine and the share of analysts who are negative. Generally speaking, an sanguine view is considered positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a negative view is considered negative (or bearish).
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Economic indicator
ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment
Economic sentiment published by Center for European Economic Research measures the sentiment of institutional investors, reflecting the difference between the share of investors who are sanguine and the share of analysts who are negative. A positive number means that the proportion of optimists exceeds the proportion of pessimists. Typically, an sanguine view is considered positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a negative view is considered negative (or bearish).
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