It’s been a complex few weeks for FTSE100 But BP (LSE:BP) share price has seen mighty growth. The same force is driving both wars in Iran.

On February 27, the day before the conflict began, BP shares closed at 487 pence. Today they are 17.5% higher and amount to 572p. They were doing well previously because investors decided that BP needed to get its act together at some point after years of management turmoil. Moreover, shares were economical and profitability was high. BP shares are up 68% in 12 months. Can this continue?

They collapsed last week after Donald Trump announced a 14-day ceasefire. Despite the violations, this more or less holds true today. Tomorrow? Who knows. In the best of times, it’s impossible to guess the price of oil, and right now it seems like one of the worst times.

Volatile FTSE 100 shares

As markets become positive about a resolution to the Iran issue, the FTSE 100 index rises and BP falls. When pessimism appears, the opposite happens.

Brent crude oil ended February at $65. On April 6, it exceeded $109. The price has since dropped to $95 a barrel. Where he goes next is anyone’s guess. JP Morgan warns it could reach $120 if the Strait of Hormuz continues to be a no-go zone in the summer.

BP could break even with oil prices around $30 to $40 a barrel. Either way, it looks like they will make huge profits, although the markets have already priced them in to some extent. There are also political risks. Pressure may be mounting for an even tougher tax on windfall profits as oil companies appear to be cashing in while voters struggle. Although this may not be the time to punish energy suppliers.

It is said to be the biggest shock in the history of oil and gas supplies, with up to one fifth of global oil and gas supplies at risk. However, in practice it may not be as bad as it was in the early 1970s. The world economy is using less oil thanks to greater efficiency and the development of renewable energy sources. Additionally, the United States is a much larger producer thanks to shale.

This is a long-term investment

After the energy shock in Ukraine in 2022, we saw that markets were able to adapt and find up-to-date sources of supply. It could happen here. Which could be a long-term blow to Big Oil. I could name half a dozen more threats, in both directions. So what can investors actually do?

On A motley foolwe recommend investing for the long term, which involves muting short-term political or geopolitical noise. It’s not straightforward, especially today.

With this in mind, I think BP stock is worth considering as fossil fuels remain indispensable to the global economy even as the energy transition gathers pace. The Middle East crisis confirmed this. Without oil, many drivers cannot drive, jets cannot fly, and in some countries people could even starve to death because oil is also needed to produce fertilizers and raw materials. Also pharmaceuticals.

Investors who want exposure today should consider pumping money into BP, taking advantage of any further price declines. However, don’t assume that today’s rally will continue. The next few weeks will be a bumpy one for BP and all companies.