Bitcoin’s nearly week-long recovery is “fragile” as the cryptocurrency market faces geopolitical and macroeconomic issues related to the ongoing war in the Middle East, according to Nic Puckrin, cryptocurrency market analyst and founder of Coin Bureau media.
“Even if the war ends now, its repercussions will likely be the story of 2026, and certainly the dominant narrative in the second quarter. I don’t expect interest rate cuts before the end of the third or fourth quarter, if at all,” Puckrin told Cointelegraph. He said he saw:
“To move toward $90,000, we would need to see a combination of factors: a ceasefire that ends geopolitical tensions, a sustained decline in oil prices toward $80, and ideally also milder-than-expected economic data that eases fears of stagflation.”
If Bitcoin closes the week above $71,000, it could signal continued growth for BTC, with resistance formed around the $74,000 level, he said. At last glance, it was trading at around $71,276, according to TradingView data.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index, the ongoing conflict has caused inflation to soar reportpublished on Friday, weakens hopes for further interest rate cuts in 2026. Rate cuts or easing credit policy usually stimulate asset prices.
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Bitcoin stumbles as negotiations with Iran fail and the US president threatens major escalation
According to the Kobeissi Letter, the price of bitcoin rose by about 5.8% starting on April 6, reaching over $73,000, before falling to about $71,000 on April 11 following news of failed negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.
“Peace talks appear to be over” – Kobeissi Letter he saidadding: “the outcome of the talks was probably the worst-case scenario.”
After failed peace talks, US President Donald Trump he said ordered the US military to establish a naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz.
“I have also instructed our Navy to seek out and block any vessel in international waters that has paid a fee to Iran. Anyone who pays an illegal fee will not be able to safely sail on the high seas,” Trump said Saturday.
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which decides U.S. interest rate policy, remain divided on further interest rate cuts in 2026, citing war-induced inflation concerns.
The meeting shows that the FOMC did not rule out an interest rate augment in 2026 if inflation remains above the 2% target. protocol from the March FOMC meeting.
By CME Fedwatch toolthe probability that the FOMC will maintain its current target rate range of 350-375 basis points at the next two meetings, April 29 and June 17, is over 98%. At the July 29 meeting, the odds drop to about 65%, with a 33.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut.
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