Dogecoin is showing renewed signs of weakness as its BTC pair crashes sharply, dragging its price structure into bearish territory. WITH momentum key support levels fading in and out, attention now turns to confirmation on the USDT pair.

BTC pair split triggers Dogecoin bearishness

The latest version of Umair Crypto analysis highlights a significant breakdown as the DOGE/BTC pair hit a 68-day low, breaking critical support. Although the overall sentiment is strongly bearish, the USDT pair still needs to trigger a broader sell-off.

BTC Pair Continues to Show Weakness; a drop below 1.57% would represent a novel 180-day low. While the USDT pattern remains technically intact for now, the underlying fragility is obvious. Market participants are waiting for a confirmed break of the current range to initiate low positions, with primary targets set at the $0.07 area.

Online data recently showed that a whale moved 327 million Dogecoin from Robinhood, sparking a low squeeze of 1% to $0.092. Despite this local strength, momentum indicators are generally weakening. Without a significant catalyst such as Elon Musk’s resumption or a government initiative, a technical failure of the BTC pair is expected to lead the way.

The cooling of previous noise cycles suggests that the path of least resistance has gone downhill. Once USDT support is officially broken, the path will likely open for a move towards the 7 cent range.

Elliott wave theory paints a bigger picture

In the last Dogecoin macro updateCG Trades pointed to an explosive rally in 2024, with Dogecoin rising almost 500% from its lows, providing a total 6x move and approximately 5x upside from the identified weekly breakout entry. The move marked one of the strongest performances in the altcoin space during the cycle.

However, from December 2024, the dynamics dropped sharply. Dogecoin has come under pressure, falling along with the broader altcoin market, in line with earlier warnings of a cooling phase after a euphoric period of growth.

Examining the bigger picture using Elliott wave theory, the structure suggests that a long-term cycle is developing. Wave 1 ends near the January 2018 altcoin high, and then Wave 2 occurs in March 2020 after a retest of the long-term trend line. Wave 3 peaked in May 2021, and the market has either completed or is still completing Wave 4 in June 2022 near the key support zone at $0.061349.

From this perspective, the expected Wave 5 could result in significant expansion, with a projected target around $1.41, representing a potential 15x move from current levels or up to 23x if the price returns to the $0.061349 region before rising. However, a monthly close below this level would invalidate the hopeful macro outlook and signal a deeper structural change.