Dr. Henry Hao of Commerzbank sees a risk of China’s GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the bank’s forecast of 4.6%, supported by resilient exports and front-loaded public investment. Industrial production is forecast to grow by 5.5% year-on-year, while retail sales will ponderous to 2.5%. The bank warns that aftershocks from the Iran war could later weaken China’s export advantage and prompt further policy easing.

Business is resilient, but external risks persist

“We expect China to post first-quarter GDP growth of 4.6% year-on-year.”

“China’s Q1 GDP faces upside risks from our forecast of 4.6%, supported by resilient exports and early-focused public investment.”

“We expect March industrial production to increase by 5.5%, with activity remaining stable.”

“Looking ahead, we maintain a cautious stance on the economic outlook for the remainder of 2026. The main risk for China does not come from direct inflation, but rather from the secondary effects of the war with Iran.”

(This article was created with the aid of an artificial intelligence tool and has been reviewed by an editor.)