TD Securities expects China’s March exports to stabilize after a forceful January-to-February report, while imports could deliver a positive surprise as authorities stockpile key goods and raw materials amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. Rising costs of inputs may tardy down production and negatively affect exports. The bank forecasts that GDP in the first quarter will amount to 4.8% y/y, supported by forceful exports and production at the beginning of the quarter.
Stockpiling and costs shape China’s prospects
“After a phenomenal trade report in January and February, we expect some normalization in exports in March.”
“However, imports may surprise on the upside as China may rush to stockpile key goods and commodities amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.”
“As production costs rise, we may see a slowdown in production, which could pose a drag on China’s export growth in the near future.”
“Industrial production is likely to remain stable in March, but rising production costs may soon recalculate companies’ production plans.”
“Retail sales may be disappointing as consumers shifted their spending last month due to CNY holidays and early introduction of threshold grants for consumer trade. GDP is expected to expand to 4.8% YoY in Q1 given strong exports and mfg throughout the quarter.”
(This article was created with the lend a hand of an artificial intelligence tool and has been reviewed by an editor.)
