Amid the recent market recovery, Solana (SOL) is up about 10% from last week’s lows, rebounding from the $82 level and once again testing major resistance. Some market observers, however, warned that the rally could be short-lived if the cryptocurrency fails to turn a key level into support in the coming days.
Solana price in the “consolidation trap”
Solana rose 2.5% on Thursday, trying to regain the $84 area after losing that area on Wednesday evening. The altcoin has been trading between $76 and $92 since February, moving in the lower half of that range over the past two weeks.
Ali Martinez highlighted a structural pattern that has remained “remarkably consistent” since October 2025. Specifically, the analyst explained that Solana repeats a three-stage cycle every time it loses momentum over the past six months.
According to Martinez, the pattern starts with a recovery of the 50-day uncomplicated moving average (SMA). This is followed by a edged failure to hold the 50-day SMA as support. Finally, SOL enters the “consolidation trap”, a brief period of “complacency” before the actual decline begins.
As the chart shows, the cryptocurrency saw this pattern in November 2025 and January 2026, when it fell below the 50-day SMA and consolidated for weeks before another major sell-off, eventually stopping lower and hitting a fresh local bottom.
Solana moved above the 50-day SMA in mid-March when it hit a local high of $97 and has since fallen below it. Currently, the altcoin is in a consolidation phase, drifting sideways between $79-81 and trading below the key SMA near $86.
“If this pattern continues, this sideways move is not a ‘stabilization’ – it is a break down of a new position lower. Based on previous cases, a failure to regain the $86 level quickly could predict a move towards $52,” Martinez said.
SOL failure imminent?
Lewiatan market observer excellent that since February, Solana has retested the lower end of its local range seven times, with each bounce weakening after each retest.
At the time of writing, price has been rejected from the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), suggesting that the next step could be a retest and a breakout from the key $76-$80 support area. “Historically, the more a support level is tested, the weaker it becomes. Watch this level closely,” he said.
Crypto Lens Analyst common similar prospects, pointing to a potential bearish pattern on the SOL chart. According to the post, the cryptocurrency has been trading on a bear flag since the beginning of February and broke out of the formation when it fell below the $81 area in slow March.
This structure also developed in slow 2025, leading to a 54% correction after Solana broke out of the pattern. Following its recent bounce, the altcoin is once again testing the lower boundary of the pattern from support, which could turn this level into resistance if momentum does not sustain.
“This is not random price action, it is a pattern,” the analyst warned. “If this happens, SOL could be heading towards the $45 zone.”
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com
