While Ethereum (ETH) is retesting a key level for the first time this month, some market observers are urging caution, warning that the start of a novel bull market may not be here yet.
No Ethereum party until this happens
After rising almost 10%, Ethereum is trying to reclaim a key area that has served as a major resistance zone since its crash in early February. Over the past two months, the altcoin king has been trending sideways, oscillating between $1,800 and $2,200 levels.
As the altcoin breached the $2,150-$2,200 area, some market observers cautioned investors not to celebrate just yet, arguing that ETH failed to sustain that level despite multiple retests during the period.
Analyst Ted Pillows confirmed that as long as Ethereum stays above the $2,200 level, it could move towards last month’s high near the $2,400 area, but he cautioned investors not to “mistakenly confuse this with the beginning of a bull market,” suggesting that novel lows will occur between the second and third quarters of 2026.
Similarly, market watcher Crypto Scient advised investors not to “confuse positioning with guessing,” explaining that the cryptocurrency has failed to break out of the macro-downtrend that began last October.
According to the chart, Ethereum is currently trading near the macro trend resistance while still maintaining its Lower High (LH) structure. According to him, it’s “where most people run forward and get chopped up.”
The scientist argued that even if it hits a bottom and a bull market begins in ETH, “no money will be made within this trend. It will be made when the price is above it.”
However, price must break above the trend, move it towards support and show acceptance above it before investors can declare a true reversal. “Until that happens, it will just be another downward trend,” he said.
Key levels to watch
Ali Martinez common “final accumulation zones” for Ethereum, presenting some potential scenarios for its price. In the first case, the cryptocurrency could be listed in a multi-year ascending triangle, with the $1,800 level representing a “line in the sand”.
As he explained, this price point serves as the hypotenuse of the triangle and, if it holds, could trigger a rally towards the $4,900 x-axis. This level is also “almost perfectly” in line with the 0.80 MVRV price band located around the $1,880 area.
The 0.80 band “has been a reliable indicator of cycle bottoms” because it has historically marked the points where sellers exhaust themselves and “strong hands” take over, Martinez stressed.
Meanwhile, in the second scenario, Ethereum could move in a parallel channel, risking another 30-50% correction towards the channel lows between $1,150-$1,170. Martinez highlighted that an analysis of the UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) reveals that huge ETH clusters were purchased at prices ranging from $2,079 to $1,882.
The URPD also shows that below $1,880, the most significant buy walls are at $1,584, $1,238 and $1,089, which means that if the February lows are lost, the price will break above these levels.
“While accumulation is taking place in the $1,000 range, the ‘launch engine’ for the next big rally is the $2,500 realized price,” the analyst noted, adding that whenever Ethereum regains its realized price, it historically means that the average holder has returned to profits and the “cooling period” has ended.
“A clear breakout and staying above $2,500 is my main trigger for the start of a new macro rally,” Martinez concluded.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com
