According to analyst Willy Woo, Bitcoin is still a long way from triggering the three signals that have historically appeared at the end of bear markets.

Bitcoin continues to trade well below recent investors’ costs

In the novel one post on X, analyst Willy Woo listed three things that usually happen at the end of a bear market. The first signal is the price breaking the cost base of short-term holders (STH). STHs refer to investors who have purchased their coins in the last 155 days. Therefore, this group’s cost basis represents the break-even point of recent cryptocurrency purchasers.

As the chart below shared by Woo shows, Bitcoin fell below the STH cost base during previous bear markets and stayed there, suggesting that novel market entrants remained underwater.

As you can see from the chart, Bitcoin also dropped below the STH cost base with the bearish shift in Q4 2025 and has remained below that level since then, with the gap widening over time.

Historically, the price of the cryptocurrency has broken above the STH cost basis at the end of a bear market (as indicated by the circles on the chart). Another thing that usually follows this phase change is fresh purchases from investors. This second signal gives rise to a third one: a reversal of the trend in the average level of CPK acquisition.

The chart shows that CPK’s cost base shows a downward trend during the bear market. This is a natural result of coins changing hands at lower levels of bear markets, which lowers the average break-even level. As we move away from the significant bear market phase, investors begin to buy at higher prices, which causes the STH cost basis to invert upwards.

Below the post, a user asked Woo for clarification. To which the analyst replied:

The price quoted is not even close to the cost basis of recent traders, and that cost basis drops every day… there is no point in buying until the cut happens. Bear markets require patience.

Right now, the cost basis of Bitcoin STH is hovering around $81,000, which means recent purchasers have a net unrealized loss of over 14%. Now it remains to be seen how long it will be before the cryptocurrency is able to find a breakout above the level.

BTC price

Bitcoin finished below $67,000 last week, but the digital asset’s value has surged again since Monday, with its price rising to $69,500.