As we near the end of the first quarter of 2026, a cryptocurrency market observer has shared a bearish outlook for XRP, warning that the altcoin’s correction may not be over yet and there is a risk of a deeper pullback over the next few months.
XRP risks 60% correction in Q2
XRP continued to trend sideways on Tuesday, oscillating between $1.30 and $1.35 for the fifth day in a row. The cryptocurrency has been trading between two key levels, $1.21 and $1.55, for almost two months.
Markey’s Follower More Crypto Online highlighted that there has been no major price action since the early February correction as the altcoin was unable to break out of its local range.
However, he noted that XRP has maintained the lower end of this key range despite market volatility, adding that it is a key support zone and decision-making area for the cryptocurrency. According to the analysis, the next significant move will define the structure and “determine whether the more bullish scenario remains valid or whether a deeper correction occurs.”
He explained that XRP’s current structure suggests that a more bearish scenario is likely in the miniature to medium term, with a “more complex ABC structure potentially developing” unless the market “really goes into an impulsive rally.”
In this scenario, the cryptocurrency could rebound to a key resistance area between $1.76 and $2.86 in the coming weeks in Wave B, before the price continues to move lower in Wave C.
The analyst said this key resistance area requires special attention as there is a potential for a bounce into it if February lows hold. He concluded that “if it is a corrective move up, which is what we currently expect, (…) we could see a slight rebound in the second quarter, (…) and then perhaps at the end of the second or the beginning of the third quarter we could see a C wave down.”
As the chart shows, this correction could place the XRP low between $0.98 and $0.48, which would represent a pullback of 30% to 60% from current levels.
Early second quarter relief rally coming?
Meanwhile, Chard Nerd shared a similar post perspectivesconfirming that XRP may rise to $1.80-2.00 in the coming months. The analyst explained that the altcoin could see gains in the April-May period, which could mark a very critical turning point considering its previous performance.
It is worth noting that after peaking in previous cycles, the altcoin dropped to retest the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) before making a edged rally towards the 20 and 50 EMAs. Then there was a rejection and a drop to bear market lows.
The market observer shared that he expected support to boost faster, but noted that the cryptocurrency has been consolidating around its 200 EMA for weeks. This may signal that the retest of this indicator may take longer than in the previous cycle and that retests of the 20 and 50 EMA may occur later.
“XRP is oscillating around the 200-week EMA. We have seen large relief gains in the past, which means we can achieve this, but there will likely be another low later in the year (…) between the $0.90 to $0.70 region. (…) This is the point we are trying to reach before further expansion,” he concluded.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com
