Less than three months have passed since the beginning of the year (although it may seem much longer!). At this time though Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) fell by almost a fifth. Buying Tesla stock is now 19% cheaper than it was at the beginning of the year.

Should I do this?

A company with long-term, proven results

It’s simple not to be surprised that Tesla’s stock is falling, as the company has faced many challenges in recent years – more on that in a moment.

The truth, however, is that even after the recent share price decline, Tesla’s long-term performance is positive.

Tesla shares are up 34% in the last year alone. This far exceeds the 13% boost seen in S&P500 index at that time.

Tesla has grown 78% in five years.

For someone who bought Tesla stock when it went public in 2010, the gain was even greater: phenomenal 28638%.

It goes without saying that past performance is not necessarily an indication of what to expect in the future.

But since there’s never a shortage of people willing to take a critical look at Tesla’s investment case, I think it’s worth remembering that the company, which now has a market capitalization of $1.1 trillion, was responsible for creating some stern value.

Tesla is at a crossroads

So why have Tesla shares fallen recently?

In my opinion, the decline reflects uncertainty about where the company might go.

One way to value it is its current operations. While it does well in the energy generation and storage business, Tesla’s bread and butter is its car business.

Car sales volumes have fallen for two years in a row. I think that by eliminating some models from an already confined offer, it may lose more potential sales.

Meanwhile, rivals like it BYD gaining share in many markets (currently selling more than Tesla worldwide). The end of key U.S. tax breaks has negatively changed the economics of Tesla’s car business.

In summary, I see no justification for using market capitalization close to USD 1.1 trillion.

Apparently some investors do, though, hence the current market capitalization. Instead of focusing on their existing business, their investment case is primarily focused on the future.

Much to prove – but no guarantee of success

From autonomous taxis to robotics, it looks like the road ahead is full of potential.

Tesla’s history has shown that it can bring novel technology to market at scale in a tiny period of time. Add to that some of the other existing capabilities, from autonomous driving software to manufacturing, and Tesla undoubtedly has a good chance of doing well in such emerging fields.

But – most importantly, in my opinion – other companies do it too. Many other companies.

In fact, many companies have already made greater progress, both in the field of autonomous vehicles (BYD is one of them) and robotics.

Tesla’s ambitions are at a relatively early stage at this point. They are far from large-scale commercialization and may never achieve it.

However, even after the share price decline, Tesla seems priced for huge success. I think it’s overvalued, so I won’t invest.

Fortunately, there are other tech stocks that I believe offer much better potential value right now…