Bitcoin’s (BTC) total supply gained 60.6% on Thursday and continues to move within a range historically associated with resetting market cycles. The ratio had previously fallen to 50.8% on February 5, the lowest level since January 2, 2023, leaving a vast proportion of holders at breakeven or at a loss.

Similar conditions in previous cycles preceded sturdy upward movements. In January 2023, BTC was trading at $16,682 when it had a comparable yield of 51% and then increased by 655% to $126,000 in 2025.

A similar situation occurred in March 2020, when the total profit supply fell below 50% when the BTC price was $6,500, before rising to $69,000 in 2021.

Bitcoin yields return to baseline levels of the previous market cycle

Over the last five years, the profitability range has been 50-60%. repeatedly marked periods in which a vast portion of holders were close to BTC’s cost base. This compresses unrealized gains in the network and reduces the incentive to sell into weakness.

Note that the metric does not indicate the lowest price level. It represents a zone where long-term accumulation has led to sturdy gains while downward selling pressure has eased.

In previous cycles, Bitcoin prices bottomed when the long-term holder’s net unrealized gain/loss (LTH-NUPL) turned negative, as seen during the bear markets of 2015, 2018, and 2022. This phase marked a period in which long-term investors incurred losses.

However, the current LTH-NUPL reading is close to 0.40, meaning long-term bond holders continue to see comfortable returns even as overall supply yields have fallen near the lows of the market cycle.

This gap highlights the changing market environment. A growing portion of the Bitcoin supply is currently held by corporate entities and spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), which together control nearly 15.8% of the circulating supply, i.e. 3,319,677 BTC.

These participants typically operate with longer position holding periods and less sensitivity to short-term price fluctuations.

As a result, yield compression in the BTC market is not translating into the same level of forced selling by long-term holders seen in previous cycles in 2015, 2018 and 2022.

This change helps explain why the total yield supply can return to historic accumulation zones while long-term holder yields remain elevated.

Related: Bitcoin in ‘later stages’ of bear market: watch BTC price levels

BTC exchange flows follow valuation models

The flow of short-term BTC holders into Binance dropped to 25,000 BTC on March 25. Darkfost cryptocurrency analyst he said This is a fresh low in the market, compared to around 100,000 BTC during the sell-off in early February. This decline indicates a clear reduction in reactive selling by newer market entrants.

Meanwhile, GugaOnChain cryptocurrency analyst excellent that pricing models can lend a hand identify where deeper market stresses may arise for BTC. Metrics such as market value to realized value (MVRV) below 1, NUPL below -0.2 and Puell multiple near 0.35 have historically emerged during periods of high retail pressure and undervaluation.

While these indicators do not predict exact market lows, they highlight areas where downside risk has historically been restricted relative to long-term upside, providing a clearer picture of overall market position.

Related: Bitcoin Falls 3% As Analysis Shows BTC Price At $70,000 dollars “is obviously not bearish”