Bitcoin has returned towards $70,000 after plummeting to around $67,000, but Glassnode says the rebound still lacks the demand profile needed to turn stabilization into a more sustained recovery.

In the latest weekly report on March 25, titled Awaiting Liquidity, the on-chain analyst firm argued that several pressure points have eased simultaneously, including sell-side intensity, ETF outflows and market imbalances driven by dealers. Still, low spot volumes, restricted leverage and a tight band of overall supply suggest the market is not yet at a high-conviction breakout stage.

A delicate spot in Bitcoin demand could limit the upside

The most essential point of Glassnode is that the structure has improved, but not enough to consider the correction complete. “Bitcoin is starting to show some constructive signs after a sharp corrective move, with prices stabilizing, ETF flows improving and derivative positioning becoming less one-sided,” the report said. “The pressure that defined the recent sell-off appears to be easing and the market is starting to look more balanced than it did a week ago.”

This balance, however, falls within a narrow and still fragile range. Glassnode said a recent accumulation cluster is forming around the current level, with the 1-week to 1-month cohort having a cost base near $70,200. This gives the market a developing level of support, but the company described it as vulnerable as the current buyer base remains modest.

Above the market, the image of resistance is stronger. The 1-month to 3-month loan holder cohort is approximately $82,200, while Glassnode also identified a larger cluster of short-term holder supply in the approximately $93,000 to $97,000 range. Elsewhere in the report, it noted “particularly high concentrations of short-term supply for holders of shares above $84,000,” describing these stocks as a potential source of renewed selling pressure in any attempt at a sustained economic recovery.

The on-chain situation also points to a market under pressure, but not one that is showing outright panic. Relative unrealized losses have stabilized at above 15% of market capitalization over the past two months, which Glassnode says is reminiscent of the scare seen in Q2 2022, although still a far cry from episodes of capitulation like the FTX collapse.

At the same time, realized profitability dropped dramatically. Unit-adjusted realized profit, using a 7-day moving average, has declined from approximately $3 billion per day in July 2025 to less than $100 million today, a decline of more than 96%. According to Glassnode, this speaks to both sides of the current situation: fewer profitable sellers left to distribute coins, but also a weaker inflow of fresh capital into the market.

“Spot market activity remains relatively weak following the sharp sell-off in the $67,000 region, and total exchange volumes have shown only a moderate response during the subsequent recovery,” the report said.

Compared to the larger share seen during earlier impulsive rallies, current spot volumes remain petite. This suggests that a rebound towards 70,000 dollars has so far been supported more by selective dip-buys and short-term repositioning than by the return of broad-based, large-scale spot demand.”

This is the missing piece of Glassnode’s view. ETF flows improved, with the 7-day average turning moderately positive after an extended period of outflows, suggesting early institutional re-engagement. However, the company emphasized that the scale of these inflows remains restricted compared to earlier phases of accumulation.

Derivatives markets have a similarly cautious history. Perpetual financing rates remain negative, which means investors continue to pay to maintain exposure to declines while open futures rates remain relatively low rather than rising with the rebound. Options markets are no longer under acute stress, but they are also not pricing in sturdy bullish confidence. The short-term bias remains skewed toward puts, indicating continued demand for downside protection even as longer-term positioning appears more balanced.

The main short-term variable is the expiration of weekly, monthly and quarterly options on Friday. Glassnode said dealers continue to focus on compact positions between $70,000 and $75,000, with about $10 billion of this positioning expected to occur. Once this mechanical influence subsides, BTC may become more sensitive to broader macro and liquidity conditions.

At the time of publication, the price of BTC was $69,961.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com