EUR/USD Price Forecast: The pair struggles below 1.1600 as sellers remain in control

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EUR/USD is trading with a slight downward bias on Friday after a moderate rebound in the US dollar (USD) weighs on the euro (EUR), and price action is compact of further buying after failing to sustain a break above the 1.1600 level.

At the time of writing, the pair is hovering around 1.1542, down about 0.38% on the day, although it remains on track to close the week in positive territory after two consecutive weekly losses.

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Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is trading near 99.67, recovering from Thursday’s decline of about 1.10%.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart suggests that EUR/USD remains slightly bearish in the compact term as the pair continues to trade below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day basic moving averages (SMAs).

Price action continues to incorporate a sequence of lower highs, highlighting continued selling pressure and keeping a broader correction phase from the 1.2000 area in play.

Meanwhile, momentum remains tender, with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) sitting around 43, indicating continued downward pressure after the recent oversold dip below 30, but without a powerful trend acceleration.

On the other hand, reaching 1.1600 constitutes immediate resistance, before the key confluence zone around 1.1670-1.1730.

A decisive break above this region would negate the current bearish structure and change the bias back to bullish, opening the door towards February highs near 1.1900, with a possible extension beyond the psychological level of 1.2000.

The downside is immediate support near the 1.1400 level. A break below this level could trigger a deeper corrective move towards 1.1300-1.1200.

Today’s US dollar price

The table below shows the current percentage change of the United States Dollar (USD) against the major listed currencies. The US dollar was strongest against the Japanese yen.

USD EUR GBP JPY BOOR AUD NZD CHF
USD 0.29% 0.87% 0.96% -0.08% 0.69% 0.53% -0.01%
EUR -0.29% 0.57% 0.66% -0.37% 0.40% 0.22% -0.29%
GBP -0.87% -0.57% 0.08% -0.95% -0.17% -0.35% -0.86%
JPY -0.96% -0.66% -0.08% -1.01% -0.26% -0.41% -0.93%
BOOR 0.08% 0.37% 0.95% 1.01% 0.76% 0.61% 0.08%
AUD -0.69% -0.40% 0.17% 0.26% -0.76% -0.16% -0.69%
NZD -0.53% -0.22% 0.35% 0.41% -0.61% 0.16% -0.53%
CHF 0.00% 0.29% 0.86% 0.93% -0.08% 0.69% 0.53%

The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select the US dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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