As XRP tries to defend a key support level, the analyst has called for a 30%-40% rally in the coming weeks, suggesting the altcoin could see short-term relief before reaching a “critical inflection point.”

XRP defends its ‘lifeline’

On Friday, XRP saw an intraday pullback of 2.5% to retest the $1.43 area before rebounding above the key $1.40 level. Over the past month, the altcoin has fluctuated between $1.34 and $1.50, recently trying to break the upper end of the range.

During this week’s market rally, the cryptocurrency surged 15% from weekend lows, hitting a monthly high of $1.60 on Tuesday. However, broader market volatility pulled XRP back into the local range, prompting the altcoin to retest a key area.

ChardNerd Analyst confirmed that the altcoin is “currently defending a lifeline by holding onto support” and that it expects what it believes will be its “critical turning point” to continue in the coming weeks.

XRP is trading around the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is currently $1.41, with multiple closes below this value and a bullish bounce above this level on the last weekly candle.

As he explained, this is a key guardrail that the cryptocurrency needs to defend as the end of the week approaches, as it would set the stage for a fresh retest and a potential rebound of the $1.50 resistance and increased relief towards the two key levels above, the 20 EMA and 50 EMA.

“So what I’m trying to say is that XRP could potentially see some relief in the coming months, towards EMAs that are between $1.80 and $2.00. And if it does get that relief, it would represent a very critical inflection point.”

He further emphasized that XRP needs to defend and hold the EMA 200 as it has regained the critical support level on the weekly time horizon and pushed the price towards recent local highs.

Why an April rally is likely

Digging deeper into the potential upcoming support surge, the analyst noted that XRP has also featured “very interesting developing price action” in previous cycles.

He noted that after hitting a high in 2021, the altcoin dropped to the 200 EMA, rallied towards the 20 and 50 EMA, before being rejected and ultimately falling to bear market lows.

Now the cryptocurrency has done “exactly what we did at the top of the previous cycle in 2021,” reversing significantly from its July 2025 high and falling back to the 200 EMA.

It’s worth noting that the altcoin saw about three months of relief after a successful backtest, which could signal that “we could be looking at another few months at this point if Bitcoin performs.”

Moreover, the previous relief effort took place around March 2022, ChardNerd said, noting that it “doesn’t have to be repeated in exactly the same way.” If the March aid raise doesn’t retest the $1.80-$2.00 level next week, the analyst suggested that “there’s a possibility it could last a little longer than the previous cycle” and extend into April or May.

“Therefore, in my opinion, there is still potential to get up to $2 and then XRP will return to the $0.80-0.70 level,” he concluded.

Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com