A single on-chain indicator has quietly triggered the bottom of every major Bitcoin cycle over the past decade, and now it’s coming again at this critical level.
The setup comes from the monthly Bitcoin chart combined with the NUPL indicator, which tracks whether the average holder is holding an unrealized profit or loss. In each of the last three major bear market lows, the indicator was in the same area and touched a rising trend line.
Nailing Bitcoin’s Bottom
Bitcoin’s recent break above $70,000 and into the mid-$70,000s has occurred we have seen a tardy return of bullish sentiment. Fear and greed index improved, but one question still remains unresolved. Has the market found its bottom yet? Is there still another wash ahead of us? Interestingly, long-term analysis of net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) shows that the answer may lie in a pattern that has repeated itself over many market cycles.
NUPL is a pure sentiment meter in Bitcoin analysis because it limits price action to the question of whether holders of the cryptocurrency are, on average, making a profit or feeling the pain. When the reading is high, the market focuses on vast unrealized profits. When it falls sharply, these gains disappear and losses dominate.
The monthly candlestick chart shows that Bitcoin’s major cycle lows are consistently forming as NUPL resets into deep territory and establishes a long-term ascending support line. This occurred at the low of the cycle in 2015, repeated during the bear market in 2018, and reemerged near the low in 2022. Each of these touches occurred at moments when sentiment had already been crushed and the Bitcoin price had lost most of its previous gains.
The current NUPL reading of 22.9 represents the cryptocurrency continuing to make modest total gains, although it has lost a huge portion of the gains that investors amassed during the rally to its October 2025 high above $126,000.
Is the bottom already there?
According to to a cryptocurrency analyst which is called CrypFlow on social media platform X, the NUPL indicator is once again approaching Bitcoin’s low. If this pattern continues, Bitcoin may still need another deeper sentiment reset before the market reaches a true long-term collapse.
The price may have corrected significantly, but the indicator shows the emotional capitulation noticeable at the previous lows may not be complete yet. NUPL may continue to move lower and reach the trendline before a bottom is confirmed.
Related reading: The analyst says the bitcoin bulls have won and that is the next target
While no single indicator can bottom with perfect precision, the NUPL leaves room for the possibility that there could be one final price collapse before another full cycle of growth begins. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $74,220, up 1.3% in the last 24 hours.
Featured image from pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
