Prediction marketplace platform Polymarket says it has banned and reported users who pressured an Israeli journalist with death threats to change a news story about an Iranian missile attack that was the subject of a $17 million prediction market.
The Times of Israel’s military correspondent Emanuel Fabian wrote in: report on Monday that he began receiving messages asking him to change his report on the Iranian missile that struck the Israeli city of Beit Shemesh on March 10.
“As I understand it now, the emails I received were intended to confirm whether a rocket struck Israel on March 10 to confirm Polymarket’s prediction,” he wrote.
The market allowed betting on the date Iran would attack Israel, and currently over $17 million has been placed on March 10.
The rules state that the market “will elect ‘Yes’ if Iran initiates a drone, missile or air attack on Israeli territory by the specified date,” but a clause in the rules adds that “intercepted missiles or drones” will not be counted even if they land in Israel.
“My little report on a missile hitting an open area was now in the middle of a betting war, and those who had bet no on Iran attacking Israel on March 10 were demanding the article be changed to give them a big win,” Fabian wrote.
No injuries were reported after Iran’s latest missile attack on Israel, the fourth today.
One rocket hit an open area just outside Beit Shemesh, rescuers say and can be seen in the video.
Sirens blared in the Jerusalem area, the West Bank and parts of the southern… pic.twitter.com/j6sovAsDwz
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 10, 2026
Trading volume on prediction markets, the largest of which are Polymarket and Kalshi, increased last year, but critics and lawmakers warned that popular markets tied to wars and political events could encourage insider trading.
The journalist received death threats due to the reports
Fabian said he received emails, messages and phone calls asking him to change the report, claiming the impact was a rocket fragment, and one person also fabricated a message to make it appear Fabian agreed the rocket had been intercepted.
Fabian said he received long threatening messages in Hebrew from a man named “Haim,” who told him to change the report or else “damage will occur that you never dreamed of.”
Fabian said Haim warned that he was “at risk,” that they would invest money “to finish you off,” that he had “made a fatal mistake” and that he had created “enemies who will be willing to pay anything to make your life miserable.”
He added that Haim also provided “specific details” about his parents, family and neighborhood.
Fabian said he contacted the police about the threats and they are currently investigating.
– Polymarket said in a statement sent on Monday to X that it “condemns the harassment and threats directed against Emanuel Fabian – or anyone else for that matter.”
Related: Israel arrests two people in connection with Polymarket trade linked to military operations
“This behavior violates our Terms of Service and has no place on our platform. We have blocked the accounts of all those involved and will forward their details to the appropriate authorities,” he added.
Fabian added that before receiving the threatening messages, he was contacted by a colleague from another media outlet, claiming that the friend had asked for the report to be changed.
This journalist later met with a friend about this request, who admitted to placing bets on Polymarket and offering a share of the winnings if the report was changed.
“The players’ attempt to pressure me to change my reports so that they win the bet has failed and will not succeed,” Fabian said. “But I worry that other journalists may not be as ethical if they are promised a cut of the winnings.”
Market outcomes for when Iran will strike against Israel on Polymarket were in dispute at the time of writing, with No bettors claiming the March 10 explosion was an intercepted missile.
However, Fabian later reported that the Israeli Defense Forces confirmed that the rocket that exploded near Bet Shemesh was not intercepted.
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