Bitcoin’s extended pullback from an all-time high left traders in suspenseand many investors are unsure or the worst fall it’s already passed.
One analyst known as Jelle on X believes the conversation may be missing the uncomfortable reality that Bitcoin bear markets often become much more painful than most participants expect. Price data supports a more troubling interpretation what will the current Bitcoin withdrawal look like?
Bitcoin’s current decline is still smaller than previous bear markets
Jelle cryptocurrency analyst issued an fascinating warning for investors who may underestimate the depth and duration of the Bitcoin bear market. In a post on X, Jelle noted that Bitcoin is currently down about 44% from its all-time high of $126,080, with the local low in February being around $63,000 and seeing a 53% decline from its peak. On the surface they sound grave. However, they are relatively modest compared to historical records.
Historical data shows that previous Bitcoin bear markets have pushed the asset much deeper below its peak. The market crash following the 2017 rally ultimately resulted in a loss of approximately 84% of Bitcoin’s value, while the bear market that followed the 2021 cycle bottomed out at nearly 77%.
A review of the chart provided by Jelle, which is shown below, shows how consistent the cyclical structure has been. Since 2014, Bitcoin has oscillated through periods of constant accumulation and decline. Each bull market lasts approximately 150 to 152 weeks, and each bear market lasts 52 to 58 weeks.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @CryptoJelleNL on X
In this respect, the current bear phase is much shorter than the time when previous cycles reached their low. Forecasting a bear market based on an all-time high in October 2025 would mean that the current correction would last until approximately October 2026.
“Unfortunately, I think BTC is in for more pain,” Jelle said.
RSI tells investors to wait
The analyst also examined Bitcoin’s relative strength indicator, which has repeatedly provided clues about when bear markets are coming to an end. in another post. Jelle observed that each previous bear market eventually bottomed out when the weekly RSI indicator fell below 37. Once the indicator exceeds this threshold, it often falls further before Bitcoin’s price reaches its final low.
Bitcoin has fallen by about 30% since the RSI first dropped below this level in the current cycle. This is the decline smaller than what took place in earlier cycles, though not enough to stand out as a clear anomaly, given the confined number of examples.
According to Jelle, what is more vital is the pattern that forms at the end of a bear market. A final low usually occurs when the RSI makes a higher low near the level recorded during the previous low. This higher low may occur simultaneously with a lower or higher price low.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @CryptoJelleNL on X
When the price forms a lower low but the RSI prints a higher low, the price action causes a bullish divergence on the weekly chart. This signal always preceded the transition from a bear market to the next phase of accumulation. Until this structure becomes perceptible, patience is the best approach.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
