Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards says Bitcoin has entered historically attractive accumulation territory, but not yet the kind of deep discount zone that has defined prime buying opportunities in previous cycles. He believes the setup is constructive for long-term holders, although it still lacks the confirmation needed to identify a sustainable bottom.

Interview with Joe Shew, Edwards from the Crypto Consulting Institute framed Bitcoin as “closer to bottom than top”, with many on-chain indicators pointing to value even if price action remains broken. But he didn’t hold back from calling the current scope a unique opportunity.

“I think Bitcoin can be summed up in a few words as it is closer to the bottom than it is to the top,” Edwards said. “Historically, the trend has been a broad range of values ​​in terms of onchain data and metrics. That said, it’s not the deep range of values ​​that would really excite me, which is what we’ve seen in previous cycles.”

This distinction matters. Edwards said Capriole still has a diminutive net long position in Bitcoin, but the levels that would make him “very excited” are lower, around the production cost range of about $50,000 to $60,000, with the low and mid-$50,000s standing out as particularly attractive. Historically, he said, Bitcoin has spent months in this zone during major cyclical lows.

Edwards argued that for investors thinking about a multi-year horizon, some exposure still makes sense. However, he warned that value alone is not enough. “Like any asset, stock, anything, you can be in the value zone for a long time,” he said. In his opinion, there is a lack of a convincing signal of renewed strength through a deeper capitulation, a technical breakout or more lasting evidence of demand.

Bitcoin institutional flows are improving but not decisive

One of the clearest positives in Edwards’ terms is institutional buying. He described net purchases from U.S. spot ETFs and about 200 treasuries as one of the most vital indicators for Bitcoin today, especially when these inflows exceed the daily mining supply.

“If the net result is positive, especially if it exceeds the amount of bitcoin mined per day and is therefore greater than the organic supply, then that is really positive,” he said. “We have seen all major price increases, if they are net positive.”

Still, he noted that most of these buyers remain underwater. According to Edwards, about 80% of ETFs and Treasuries are currently trading below cost, reinforcing what he calls a “typical bear market atmosphere.” A more significant signal, he said, would be powerful flows continuing for a week or two as Bitcoin holds above the $70,000 area, with a weekly close above around $71,500, which is a line in the sand for a more bullish near-term outlook.

Even then, he cautioned that a rise to the mid-$70,000s or low $80,000s wouldn’t necessarily end the broader bearish structure.

Quantum risk remains an overhang

The biggest reason Edwards doesn’t want to move more aggressively is the risks of quantum computing, which he believes limits Bitcoin’s upside in a way that previous cycles have never done before. He argued that the market has already priced in most of these concerns, but until Bitcoin Core developers start treating it as a earnest priority, growth may remain constrained.

“Frankly, I think new all-time highs may not be seen until the core team addresses this issue,” Edwards said. “The odds are actually tilted in favor because as soon as two, three or four core developers start talking openly about solving the problem, I think we can get a significant valuation move to the upside.”

This puts Bitcoin in an unusual position. Edwards sees the macro backdrop should favor strenuous assets, good liquidity conditions and gold in a long-term outperformance framework over equities. He suggested that under normal circumstances this would be a supportive environment for Bitcoin as well. For now, however, he sees the market as an area of ​​value rather than true deep value, which is promising but not yet convincing.

At the time of publication, the BTC price was $71,466.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com