BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who predicted Bitcoin would hit $250,000 this year, says he would rather wait and see than invest in Bitcoin right now, holding off until the US Federal Reserve loosens its monetary policy.
“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I put it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes said on the Coin Stories podcast published to YouTube on Tuesday.
“The longer this conflict continues, the greater the likelihood that the Fed will have to print money to support the American war machine,” he said. Hayes said he would start buying when the Fed starts easing monetary policy:
“Then I will buy Bitcoin when central banks start printing money.”
Hayes said that while some argue that “war is good for Bitcoin,” a more precise view is that “printing money is good for Bitcoin.”
Hayes added that he is not sure whether Bitcoin has bottomed out in price. At the time of publication, the price of Bitcoin was $69,926, down up 45% from October’s high of $126,000, but Hayes warned that ongoing geopolitical tensions could push the price down.
“[With] the unfortunate war between the US and Iran, I think there is a situation where the longer this goes on, there could be a massive sell-off in stocks and Bitcoin,” he said.
Hayes predicted $250,000 Bitcoin for 2026
Hayes explained that this could lead to Bitcoin falling below $60,000 and “it could be kind of a big liquidation cascade.” Bitcoin briefly touched the $60,000 level on February 6 before entering a bland uptrend.
Hayes typically shares forceful beliefs about Bitcoin, and as recently as October last year, he maintained his year-end forecast of $250,000.
Related: Bitcoin Leads, Altcoin Indices Fall to Intriguing Lows: Time for an Alt Season?
Other analysts are more confident about what will happen in the brief term. Michaël van de Poppe recently highlighted the benefits for Bitcoin amid “strong growth” on the Nasdaq stock exchange.
“There is not much left to argue for uncertainty, and on that principle, I believe we will see much more upside for Bitcoin and altcoins in the coming period,” van de Poppe said.
Meanwhile, Hayes said he doesn’t anticipate there will be many more years in which Bitcoin’s price will be “below 100,000.”
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