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Whatever you may have read, the stock market didn’t crash last week. There is a strict definition of an accident and FTSE100 has not happened.
This didn’t even qualify as a correction, which means a 10% decline in the miniature term. A fall of 20% or more is required for an accident to occur. Over the last five trading days, the UK blue chip index has fallen 5.74%, mainly due to the war in Iran. We are not yet close to disaster.
That doesn’t mean we won’t get there. Given the uncertainty, markets could expect much further declines. So what should investors do?
FTSE 100 uncertainty
On A motley fool we have a tried and tested approach to such moments. Don’t panic. Don’t try to guess the market. And above all, don’t sell. This only turns paper loss into real waste.
Instead, sit still and stay composed. If you have spare cash available, consider using it to buy powerful companies whose share prices have temporarily fallen. This, of course, takes courage. It’s not effortless to keep your nippy when the headlines scream about war. But history shows that even ordinary failures do not last forever.
At some point, the panic subsides, bargain hunters step in, and stocks return to their long-term upward trend. Short-term market volatility is the price investors pay for higher long-term stock returns.
There are exceptions. If someone needs money soon, let’s say for a house deposit, they probably shouldn’t invest in shares at all. Ideally, investors should only invest money they won’t need for at least five years, and preferably much longer. With this in mind, opportunities are already emerging.
While the FTSE 100 itself fell only slightly, many individual companies fell much more. Owner of British Airways International consolidated airline grouphouse builders Persimmon (LSE: PSN) i Barratt Redrowconsumer goods giant Reckitt and engineer Weir Group last week they were all down about 14%. Miner of precious metals Fresnillo dropped by 17%, finally breaking the streak. They have definitely entered correction territory.
Persimmon shares are falling
Many of them released news or results last week, so the Iran war is not entirely to blame. Persimmon but no. Home builders often face uncertain times. Consumer confidence is withering and people are becoming reluctant to make gigantic purchases such as houses.
This time we are dealing with interest rate risk. If rising oil prices cause inflation to rise, the Bank of England may delay interest rate cuts or even raise them. Higher costs of mortgage loans will reduce demand for apartments.
However, Persimmon currently looks reasonably valued, with a price-to-earnings ratio of around 14.3. The decline also raised the final dividend yield to 4.6%. Of course there are risks. Housebuilders have been struggling since Brexit in 2016. Persimmon shares are up 12% in the last year but are down a painful 55% in five years.
If the conflict drags on and borrowing costs remain high, sales and profits could come under pressure. Still, for patient investors with a long-term mindset, I think Persimmon is worth considering.
No one knows if there will be a major disaster next week. However, if markets fall further, I will be keeping a close eye on stocks like this. I see a lot more opportunity in the FTSE 100 today
