Actor Michael B. Jordan has overtaken Timothée Chalamet on forecasting platform Polymarket as the candidate most likely to win best actor at the 2026 Academy Awards, with his odds more than quadrupling since March 1.
Last week, the “Sinners” star. won Best Actor award at the Actor Awards, formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards or SAG.
A week before the Oscars, Polymarket traders estimate that Jordan has a roughly 47% chance of winning the award, Chalamet is a close second at 45%, Leonardo DiCaprio has a 5% chance, Wagner Moura has a 4% chance and Ethan Hawke has just a 1%. Chalamet led until Saturday.
Jordan was nominated for an Oscar for his role as twin brothers Smoke and Stack Moore in the 2025 vampire horror film “Sinners.” Chalamet was nominated for his role in the feature film “Marty Supreme,” which tells the story of a table tennis player.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences Awards will air on March 15, and at press time, Polymarket’s trading volume for Best Actor at the Oscars is over $5.6 million.
Prediction market platforms came to the fore during the 2024 US elections and continue to gain momentum, with cryptocurrency exchanges integrating prediction markets into their platforms and conventional financial firms also turning their attention to prediction market style products.
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Polymarket plans to roll out the app in the U.S. this year, but regulatory hurdles remain
Polymarket made its app available to select waitlisted US users in December 2025, with full rollout of the US-regulated platform expected later in 2026.
However, prediction marketplace platforms continue to face scrutiny from some state-level regulators in the United States, who claim they have the authority to regulate event contracts.
In February 2026, Polymarket filed a lawsuit against the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, arguing that the state gaming regulator has no authority over prediction markets and that authority rests solely with the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The lawsuit could set legal precedent on whether prediction markets are regulated solely at the federal level or whether oversight is shared between federal and state governments.
Polymarket and Kalshi also face increased regulatory scrutiny in Nevada after a federal judge rejected arguments that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and the CFTC prevent state regulators from overseeing prediction markets.
Both platforms are reportedly exploring up-to-date rounds of fundraising that could value each company at around $20 billion, roughly double their last valuation.
Each of them held preliminary talks with potential investors about raising up-to-date capital at an increased valuation, reports the Wall Street Journal. reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. The report indicates that the negotiations are at an early stage and may not result in a transaction being concluded or the target valuation secured.
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