Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering by more than $100 from the four-day low it hit earlier on Monday and is now trading above $5,100 heading into the European session, still down more than 0.40% on the day. Investors remain concerned about the impact of the prolonged conflict in the Middle East on oil prices and the global economy, which in turn acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven precious metal.
The joint U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran enters its tenth day on Monday, with no sign of an end to hostilities. Moreover, Iran has named Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as its fresh Supreme Leader, signaling that hardliners are still in power. This raises the risk of further escalation of tensions as the move is unlikely to be welcomed by US President Donald Trump, who has deemed his son “unacceptable”.
Meanwhile, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – an critical oil and gas shipping route – raises fears of an energy shock that could disrupt economic activity. This further weakens investor appetite for riskier assets, as seen in the sea of ​​red in global stock markets, and further supports gold.
Meanwhile, an intraday rise in oil prices of more than 25% raised inflation concerns and further dimmed the prospects for short-term interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), offsetting Friday’s dismal U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report. This, in turn, pushes the US dollar (USD) to a fresh high from November 2025, which should stave off any further recovery in underperforming gold, justifying caution on the part of bullish investors.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold defends key 200-EMA support in the fourth half of the year; not out of the woods yet
The short-term bias is neutral with a slight tilt to the downside as the gold price is oscillating above the rising 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, showing that the broader uptrend remains intact but momentum has weakened. The Moving Average Divergence (MACD) indicator is slipping slightly below the signal line near the zero mark and the histogram has turned slightly negative, suggesting a weakening of bullish pressure rather than an outright bearish regime. The Relative Strength Index at 43 is hovering below the 50 midline, leveling out with a consolidation tone following a slow pullback from this month’s highs.
Immediate support appears at the $5,060 region, protecting the more critical $5,000 area where the 200-period EMA coincides with recent reaction lows, and a break below this zone would open the way towards $4,960. On the other hand, initial resistance is located around $5,140, ​​which is the last swing high before the current decline, followed by $5,180 as another barrier to re-establish a more compelling bullish profile. A sustained move above $5,180 would neutralize the current downside bias and expose the $5,230 area, while a failure to sustain above $5,000 would shift attention towards a deeper correction phase.
(The technical analysis for this story was written with the assist of an AI tool.)
Price in US dollars this month
The table below shows the percentage change in the United States Dollar (USD) against the major currencies traded this month. The US dollar was strongest against the euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | BOOR | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 2.10% | 1.22% | 1.49% | -0.90% | 1.43% | 1.65% | 0.71% | |
| EUR | -2.10% | -0.85% | -0.60% | -2.93% | -0.64% | -0.44% | -1.36% | |
| GBP | -1.22% | 0.85% | 0.27% | -2.10% | 0.21% | 0.41% | -0.51% | |
| JPY | -1.49% | 0.60% | -0.27% | -2.34% | -0.05% | 0.15% | -0.77% | |
| BOOR | 0.90% | 2.93% | 2.10% | 2.34% | 2.35% | 2.55% | 1.62% | |
| AUD | -1.43% | 0.64% | -0.21% | 0.05% | -2.35% | 0.21% | -0.71% | |
| NZD | -1.65% | 0.44% | -0.41% | -0.15% | -2.55% | -0.21% | -0.92% | |
| CHF | -0.71% | 1.36% | 0.51% | 0.77% | -1.62% | 0.71% | 0.92% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select the US dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
