Bitcoin (BTC) started the week with a keen rebound that briefly lifted the world’s largest cryptocurrency back to $74,000 on Wednesday for the first time in over a month. However, as the week ended, this momentum faded and BTC fell back to around $68,260.
Even with volatile price movements, analyst firm Amber Data argues that the broader outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive. In its latest market report, the company suggests that fresh all-time highs are still possible this year.
Post-liquidation reset
Amber data describes Bitcoin enters 2026 in an unusual position. They say the market has been “de-risked” following the October liquidation, which they say is flushing excess leverage from the market.
The report said open interest had reached “unsustainable levels”, the underlying trade had become overcrowded and funding rates were reflecting tight positioning.
When headlines about President Donald Trump’s tariff policy hit the market, the over-indebted structure was unable to withstand the selling pressure. The result was a cascade of liquidations that eliminated feeble hands and reset positioning.
Although painful, the correction served its purpose. Since then, valuations have normalized, leverage has been largely removed from the system and Bitcoin market structure seems healthier, Amber Data noted.
However, the economic recovery remains brittle. Liquidity remains tight and the carry trade – once the main driver of activity – is no longer particularly attractive. According to Amber Data, the market is currently in good structural condition, but it lacks a clear catalyst that would enable it to determine its next significant move.
The “breaking through” phase.
In its base case, which it assigns a probability of 50%, Bitcoin is trading between $90,000 and $120,000. This result predicts prolonged consolidation until a significant macrocatalyst emerges.
In this “getting through the turmoil” scenario, conditions will neither dramatically worsen nor significantly improve. Volatility is shrinking, enthusiasm is cooling, and breakout expectations are both bullish and bearish collapse predictions they are repeatedly frustrated.
Early signs supporting this scenario would include an enhance in base annual interest rates to 8-10%, inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs remaining consistently positive, order book depth returning to pre-crisis conditions, and funding rates stabilizing at positive levels.
25% chance of Bitcoin breaking to $180,000
Amber Data assigns a 25% probability to a more bullish outcome, with Bitcoin rising between $120,000 and $180,000. In this case, institutional participation accelerates with the adoption of sovereignty, creating a feedback loop of increasing flows.
Early confirmation signals would include weekly Bitcoin ETF inflow exceeding $1 billion, base rates exceeding 15% as demand for leverage surges, and fresh accumulation cohorts emerging in HODL wave data, indicating large-scale inflows of fresh capital.
The Bear Case goal is $60,000
On the other hand, Amber Data assigns a probability of 20% a bearish scenario where Bitcoin costs between $60,000 and $80,000. This would occur if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate more than currently expected and global markets shift decisively to a risk-free mode.
Warning signs will be sustained ETF outflows of more than $1 billion per week, underlying yields falling below 3%, widespread stablecoin redemptions signaling capital flight, and a potential test of the $80,000 base cost of ETFs.
Finally, the company presents a “volatility and decline” scenario with a 5% probability in which Bitcoin trades between $75,000 and $110,000 with no sustained directional trend.
The indicators would include wild swings financing ratesrepeated spikes and crashes in open interest as positions are liquidated on both sides, and inconsistent ETF flows, alternating inflows and outflows with no clear pattern.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
