The Indian rupee (INR) is trading higher against the US dollar (USD) on Friday in India. USD/INR falls to near 92.00 as the Indian rupee maintains the support provided by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) forex intervention against excessive one-way moves on Thursday.
The RBI on Thursday intervened to support the domestic currency after it posted a fresh all-time low of 92.67 against the US dollar on Wednesday.
The outlook for the Indian rupee remains bleak as crude oil prices continue to rise amid the war in the Middle East involving the United States (US), Israel and Iran and continued outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market.
At press time, the price of WTI crude oil remains near a fresh 18-month high above $80.00 posted on Thursday. The price of oil has risen significantly as increased military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, part of Iran’s retaliation against the United States for the killing of its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has choked off global supply.
Currencies from countries such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, remain very sensitive to changes in oil prices.
Meanwhile, the Indian economy is unlikely to experience oil supply shortages as the United States has allowed India to buy crude oil from Russia for a month amid the Iran conflict.
On the foreign investment front, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers on all three trading days in March and shed their holdings worth Indian rupees. According to NSE data, it stands at ₹15,800.81 crore.
At the time of writing, the US dollar (USD) is trading slightly cautious ahead of US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for February, which will be released at 13:30 GMT. Investors will be closely monitoring the US NFP data for crucial information on the current employment situation. The data will also have a significant impact on the outlook for US interest rates.
The US NFP report is expected to show that the economy has created 59,000 jobs. fresh jobs, much less than 130 thousand in January. The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.3%.
Speculation about an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its July meeting weakened after Wednesday’s publication of confident ADP employment data.
According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at its July meeting increased to 47.4% from 33.4% the week before.
Technical analysis: USD/INR corrects from record high of 92.70
At the time of writing, USD/INR is down to almost 92.00. The pair maintains a bullish stance on the near-term as price holds above the rising 20-day exponential moving average near 91.43, confirming a positive short-term trend structure following the recent breakout from the 91.25-91.30 area.
Momentum conditions support this view, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above 60.00 even after breaking out of the overbought zone, suggesting continued buying pressure rather than the end of an exhaustion phase.
Immediate support appears at 91.40-91.45, defined by the 20-day EMA, with a deeper pullback revealing secondary support at 91.00. Below this, the previous reaction low near 90.60 acts as a more distant bottom that would need to hold to sustain broader gains. On the other hand, the key resistance level is the all-time high of 92.67, and a daily close above this level would open the way to the 93.00 region as the next bullish target.
(The technical analysis for this story was written with the support of an AI tool.)
