Bitcoin (BTC) fell 4.5% below a high of $74,000 reached on Thursday, with traders fretting over whether the level could mark a local peak in the BTC price.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin charts continue to show similarities to the 2022 bear cycle, suggesting another drop below $60,000 is possible.

• Others say a bottom has been reached and expect a breakout to $75,000-$80,000.

Will the 2022 BTC price cycle repeat?

BTC’s current technical structure, following its recent recovery from $60,000, shows similarities to the midpoint of previous bear cycles.

Bitcoin’s last rally to $74,000 came 149 days after its bull market peak of $126,000 in October 2025.

Related: The “abnormal” outflow of Bitcoins causes 32,000 people to leave the exchanges in one day. BTC

“$BTC reached a local high approximately 140-150 days after its high in the previous two cycles before declining.” he said Bitcoin Hyper analyst in post X on Thursday.

Echoing this view, pseudonymous Bitcoin trader Isaiah called the rise to $74,000 a “perfect local top indicator,” pointing to the bulls’ premature celebration as a signal for further dumping.

Analyst referred to to the 2022 cycle, when similar euphoria preceded a 68% drop from $48,200 to $15,500, suggesting history could repeat itself with a return to levels below $60,000.

Crypto Master he said that the tiny pump above $70,000 was a liquidity trap, eliminating both tiny and long positions and then targeting the lower zones between $62,000-65,000 where more Ask orders are found, adding:

“The price tends to go to where the bigger money is.”

As Cointelegraph reports, this week’s rally to $74,000 showed signs of a pullback, namely a classic bearish chart and gigantic upper resistance.

Is the Bitcoin relief rally over?

However, bulls argue that the likely low in the market is $60,000, which indicates a structural change.

For example, cryptocurrency analyst Bitcoin Munger he said Bitcoin’s 2022 bear fractal was not a “cause for bear” because this cycle is different.

The accompanying chart showed that while the 2022 decline caused price to “break through” the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), the current merely retested the trend line and bounced back.

Meanwhile, analyst Mister Crypto says the BTC/USD pair is breaking out of an ascending triangle, expecting a “strong upward move” if the upper trendline at $70,000 holds as support.

Other differences from the 2022 cycle include forceful institutional ETF inflows and tightening supply, which could lend a hand Bitcoin avoid another crash and position it for a rally to $75,000-$80,000.