The XRP price has returned to the technical levels that have defined some of the most explosive rallies in the past. After a piercing 62% correction culminating in a decline towards $1.10 on February 6, the token is once again testing its long-term ascending support trend line.
Amid all this, the broader cryptocurrency market showed signs of recovery this week, providing some relief. On Wednesday, the price of XRP rebounded by about 6%, while Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back above the critical $70,000 level, restoring a measure of optimism for the risky asset despite ongoing global tensions.
Historical XRP price support
On Wednesday reportmarket analyst Sam Daodu pointed out that the XRP price is on the same ascending trendline that has preceded dramatic upward moves in the past – including a 630% surge in 2024 and a remarkable surge of over 60,000% in 2017.
Daodu noted that what makes this retest unique is that it is taking place for the first time on a fully established XRP Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) spot infrastructure.
From its launch in November 2025, the US spot XRP listed funds attracted a cumulative inflow of $1.24 billion over four consecutive positive months. Approximately 797 million XRP is currently held in ETF custody.
At the same time, institutional wallets accumulated an additional 170 million XRP during the recent price decline. On March 1, Ripple again blocked 700 million XRP in a escrow account, maintaining its standard release cycle and limiting fresh delivery since entering the market.
March seasonality adds another layer to the setup. Over the past 12 years, XRP has delivered an average return of 18% in March, making it statistically the strongest month of the first quarter.
The $4 goal appears
From a technical perspective, the $1.27 level is the first support area to monitor. This corresponds to 23.6 percent. Fibonacci retracement level and served as the bottom of the bear market throughout the correction.
Below that is the $1.10-$1.11 zone, which marks the exact location of the long-term uptrend line that held in February. A decisive break below USD 1.10 would mean the first failure of this channel since 2015 and could expose the XRP price to a deeper decline towards USD 0.85-1.00.
On the other hand, the nearest Fibonacci resistance is at $1.47, closely followed by the neckline at $1.50. double bottom. A sustained close above $1.50 would confirm this pattern and forecast a move towards $1.68-$1.70.
Outside of this range, on-chain data shows approximately 1.85 billion XRP accumulated between $1.76 and $1.80, which is a zone where holders may want to exit once breakeven is reached, potentially creating significant resistance.
The most significant supply cluster is between $2.40 and $2.60; a weekly close above this band would invalidate the broader bearish structure and signal a more decisive trend reversal.
Combining March’s historical strength, capitulation signals, and structural supply constraints, Daodu suggests that the XRP price could potentially reach a range of $2.50 to $4.00 by the end of 2026.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
