Bitcoin is showing tentative signs of relief after regaining the $70,000 level. The move maintained selling pressure after weeks of volatile trading. The recovery comes as markets continue to respond to macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Which keeps liquidity volatile and investor sentiment cautious. Although the boost above 70 thousand dollars provides short-term improvement in dynamics, fundamental data suggests that a significant part of market participants remain under pressure.

According to a recent report from CryptoQuant, holders of Bitcoin cash ETFs – which broadly reflect institutional and retail demand through regulated investment vehicles – are currently below the estimated average realized price. Calculated at approximately $79,000, this basis cost leaves the average ETF investor at a loss despite the recent rebound.

Use this metric as a benchmark, not as an precise measurement of individual investor behavior. ETF flows may undiscovered internal reallocations among participants, and estimates cannot perfectly capture every underlying transaction within the funds. Nevertheless, it provides a useful proxy for the aggregate entry level for ETF equity.

ETF outflows ease after record $8.9 billion decline as Bitcoin tries to stabilize

Darkfost analysis highlights the scale of the recent pressure on spot Bitcoin ETFs. With Bitcoin trading below the $70,000 threshold for much of the correction, these funds suffered their biggest decline since their all-time high in invested value. In dollar terms, more than $8.9 billion flowed out of the ETF ecosystem as investors reduced exposure during the downturn.

The pressure was particularly evident for the largest product on the market. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which once held over 806,000 BTC at its peak, has seen significant drawdowns during the correction. According to data, over 42,000 BTC left the fund, reflecting a clear wave of distribution along with worsening market sentiment and weakening price dynamics.

These outflows provided a significant source of selling pressure during the decline, amplifying broader weakness in cash markets. When immense ETFs experience drawdowns, they often have to exchange Bitcoin to meet redemptions, increasing supply in the market.

However, the latest data suggest that the situation may be stabilizing. The cumulative decline in ETF holdings increased from approximately -$8.9 billion to approximately -$7.8 billion from the peak. While this change is still negative, it indicates that the rate of outflows is decreasing.

A renewed wave of demand from ETF investors would likely lend a hand Bitcoin establish a stronger structural base in the future.

Bitcoin recovers 70 thousand dollars as short-term dynamics improve

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin shows short-term recovery dynamics after crossing the $70,000 level. The price has managed to reclaim the 50-period moving average (blue) and is currently testing the 100-period moving average (green), signaling improved short-term strength after weeks of consolidation and lower highs.

Recent move above 70,000 dollars represents an crucial psychological change. Throughout delayed February, the $69,000-$70,000 region was a persistent rejection zone, with sellers repeatedly curtailing their attempts to grow. The recent break suggests that buyers are starting to absorb this supply, at least in the compact term.

However, the broader structure remains cautious. Bitcoin continues to trade below the 200-period moving average (red), which is currently trading near the mid-70k range. dollars. This level remains a key resistance that needs to be overcome to confirm a stronger trend reversal.

Volume increased slightly during the breakout attempt, indicating renewed participation, although not yet at levels typically associated with a sustained bullish expansion.

From a technical perspective, maintaining momentum above $69,000 will be crucial to maintaining momentum. If this level turns into support, BTC may attempt to move towards the $73,000-$75,000 region. Conversely, failure to keep the amount above PLN 69,000. dollars may result in the price returning to a wider consolidation range around $66,000-67,000.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com