Joe Burnett, vice president of Bitcoin strategy at Strive (Nasdaq: ASST), argues that bitcoin could reach $11 million by the first quarter of 2036 not because it replaces the financial system, but because it becomes the dominant long-term savings asset in an economy transformed by AI-led deflation and repeated monetary expansion. His thesis, laid out in a March 2 Substack note, paints bitcoin less as a speculative trade and more as an asset most likely to absorb excess liquidity in a world of falling production costs and chronic political intervention.
Burnett basic housing means the bitcoin network will be worth around $230 trillion by 2036. He contrasts this with the global financial asset base, which he estimates could grow from over $1 trillion today to around $1.97 trillion over the next decade, assuming 7% annual compounding. Under this framework, Bitcoin would represent approximately 12% of global financial assets.
“This result reflects a balanced revaluation of global wealth towards the one monetary asset that is in absolute shortage,” Burnett wrote. “Bitcoin does not need to replace all currencies. It does not need widespread everyday transactional use. It just needs to become the primary long-term savings asset in a world defined by monetary expansion and technological deflation.”
Bitcoin AI Deflation Thesis 2036
At the heart of the argument is what Burnett calls the “AI deflation engine.” He believes that artificial intelligence will reduce labor costs, speed up production and enhance competition in both digital and physical industries, creating lasting downward pressure on prices. He compares the change to moving horses with a car, but says this time the target is labor. He wrote that artificial intelligence already drafts contracts, analyzes finances, writes code and handles research once performed by junior specialists, while robotics continues to advance logistics, manufacturing and agriculture.
He argues that in a neutral monetary system, this kind of productivity boom would simply enhance real purchasing power. In a debt-based fiat system, this becomes destabilizing. Falling wages, weaker asset prices and fixed nominal liabilities do not mix well. “As artificial intelligence fuels deflation in the real economy, central banks and fiscal authorities are increasing liquidity to prevent a deflationary spiral,” Burnett wrote. “The more effective AI is at reducing costs, the more aggressive the monetary response will be to prevent debt deflation.”
This political reflex is the bridge to bitcoin. Burnett argues that any deflationary shock begins with a shift toward cash and government bonds, but this phase usually gives way to interest rate cuts, balance sheet expansion, credit support, and fiscal transfers. He points to earlier episodes in 1987, 2001, 2008, 2020 and 2022 as evidence that policymakers do not tolerate sustained deflation. In his opinion, the long-term effect is persistent productivity deflation combined with persistent monetary expansion, which causes capital to seek assets whose supply cannot be increased politically.
From this point on, Burnett widens the lens. He believes stocks are increasingly vulnerable to artificial intelligence-driven imaginative destruction. Real estate remains meager, but technology can speed up design, permitting and construction, limiting long-term benefits. Meanwhile, government bonds provide nominal stability while remaining pegged to currencies that are subject to constant dilution. Bitcoin, he argues, falls into a different category because its supply limit, divisibility, portability and verifiability make it uniquely suited to absorbing global liquidity over time.
He ties this thesis to a newer market structure he calls “Digital Credit” – income-generating securities backed by gigantic balances of bitcoin. Burnett cites publicly traded instruments such as STRC and SATA as examples of vehicles that offer dollar yields to lend to investors while funneling capital into additional bitcoin accumulation. He believes this could create a reflexive loop between global demand for yield and bitcoin buying.
The note relies heavily on scarcity math. Burnett writes that by 2036, less than 41,000 novel BTC will be issued annually. If global financial assets reach approximately $2 trillion, and only 1% of annual additional capital accumulation is monetary-backed in Bitcoin, that would still amount to $1.4 trillion competing for this confined novel supply – or approximately $34 million in demand for the newly issued coin.
“The path will not be smooth, but the lessons will become increasingly clear,” Burnett wrote. “Bitcoin’s trajectory towards eight-digit price levels reflects structural monetary conditions, not speculative enthusiasm and ‘faith.’ As liquidity continues to enhance in a technologically deflationary world, capital will concentrate on assets that can maintain value over time.”
His final point is not about straight-line appreciation, but about timing. He argues that markets continue to price bitcoin as a volatile cyclical asset. He believes that the next decade will increasingly value it as monetary infrastructure. Whether or not that transition happens anywhere near its $11 million target, Burnett’s thesis is clear: If AI continues to drive abundance and policymakers continue to compensate for it with liquidity, Bitcoin could be where a growing share of the world’s capital goes.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $66,958.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
