Bitcoin market cycles happen often guided by recognizable technical structures, and one analyst now believes that these repeating structures may already be pointing to another major bottom.
This is the fundamental principle behind the effectiveness of the Elliott Wave, harmonic patterns and Wyckoff theory: trade an asset long enough and it begins to exhibit pattern memory. This memory speaks at this moment. And it points to Bitcoin lowest price under $40,000.
Pattern memory and Bitcoin retracement history
Chart provided by market commentator Lisa N Edwards described what Bitcoin’s behavior looks like during a retracement could determine where the current cycle ultimately stabilizes during the current downturn. The analysis is based on the concept of pattern memory, i.e. the assumption that assets with a long trading history tend to repeat certain patterns of behavior in cycles.
Pattern memory shows that previous Bitcoin market cycles have consistently ended near specific Fibonacci retracement levels of the previous high. These levels have always acted as areas where Bitcoin’s price finally finds a lasting bottom before a novel bull phase begins.
During the 2013 cycle, Bitcoin finally bottomed out near the Fibonacci retracement at 0.86. The 2017 cycle followed a similar structure, again reaching a retracement low of 0.86 before a novel phase of accumulation began. However, the bottom of the 2021 market cycle occurred slightly higher, around the 0.786 retracement level.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @LisaNEdwards On X
Bitcoin Pattern Memory: Where’s the Next Real Bottom?
If in October 2025 was the real peak of the series for Bitcoin, as the monthly chart on the 1M time frame therefore suggests history gives us a roadmap where the price is likely headed before the next large bull run begins. Applying the same retracement framework to the current market cycle creates a range where Bitcoin could ultimately bottom if history repeats itself.
Mapping the current cycle’s Fibonacci retracement from the cycle low to the October 2025 high reveals three critical zones. The value of 0.618 is around $57,000-$58,000, which is also closely related to the weekly moving average of 200. However, this level itself may not represent the ultimate minimumbased on the behavior of previous cycles.
Instead, deeper retracement levels seem more consistent with historical patterns. This is where the 0.786 and 0.86 corrections come into play. The 0.786 retracement level is located near $39,000 and coincides with the monthly moving average of 100. Below the 0.86 retracement level is around $31,000.
Both levels have predefined major cycle bottoms; therefore, another long-term low for Bitcoin may occur somewhere in the $39,000 to $31,000 range if the October 2025 peak turns out to be the true peak of the cycle.
Some market commentators have set lower downside targets, including predictions that Bitcoin could visit the $20,000 region again. However, analysis of pattern memory shows that such a decline would mean complete breakdown Historical behavior of the Bitcoin cycle.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
