Rabobank links Iran’s strikes to a broader U.S. “big macro strategy” under Trumpism to control key flows of raw materials and energy on which China relies. The report suggests that an Iran reversal could strengthen the economic corridor for India and Central and Eastern Europe, contain China and entrench U.S. unilateral demanding power if regime change occurs quickly and oil prices fall.
Grand strategy focuses on energy and supply chains
“So why did Trump do it now? Because there was a possibility of a strike; the U.S. was reported to have feared Iran would launch a missile; Iran was rearming – China was about to supply it with new advanced missiles; India’s Modi was just talking about an alliance with Israel; and, most of all, because attacking Iran is an essential part of his Big Macro strategy to maintain 21st century hegemony against a rising China.”
“We have previously explained that China’s control over supply chains and rare earths is the United States’ Achilles’ heel. The logical response is to ensure that the raw materials on which China relies – where it cannot now project hard power but the United States can – end up in the hands of the US or US allies.”
“This concept envisaged a coup in Venezuela. The logic in the case of Iran is clearer, given that it supplies China with much more energy than Venezuela.”
“There are parallel parts of Trump’s plan at play. If Iran is reversed, the India and Central and Eastern Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) will open, linking India’s growing economy to that of the West via Middle Eastern energy – with no role for China, and the Belt and Road Initiative effectively thwarted. This would not be achievable if Iran continues to be a spoiler.”
“If we see rapid regime change, even through a change of the revolutionary guard, as in Caracas, Trumpism will become entrenched. Most American voters will appreciate the victory; oil prices will fall and remain low, and any Middle Power ‘strategic autonomy’ as an alternative to US hard power will prove irrelevant.”
(This article was created with the support of an artificial intelligence tool and has been reviewed by an editor.)
