Bitcoin is trading at weekly RSI levels that have historically been seen near bear market lows, signaling that selling pressure may be waning. While confirmation is needed, the market is in a zone often characterized by tardy capitulation. The key question: was the recent decline the final straw, or are there still some final shocks ahead?

RSI compression signals exhaustion

According to cryptocurrency analyst Batman, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI fell back into the same territory that has historically marked previous bear market bottoms. This momentum zone has emerged multiple times in the tardy stages of capitulation, providing a critical signal that the market may be approaching another major turning point.

Batman, however, makes it clear that this does not mean that the bottom has already been hit, emphasizing the importance of waiting for proper confirmation before announcing a turnaround. Still, he notes that when the RSI compresses to these levels on a weekly time horizon, Bitcoin is typically much closer to a structural low than to the beginning of a up-to-date breakdown.

Reflecting on the 2022 bear cycle, Batman points out that as the RSI entered this extreme zone, the price managed to break the recent low. However, this move occurred very close to the eventual bottom, indicating that most of the decline had already passed by the time momentum reached these depressed readings.

The analyst concludes that probability is more crucial than precision. From his perspective, when Bitcoin is trading at weekly RSI levels, it historically represents a zone where strategic accumulation becomes increasingly attractive.

Six consecutive weekly lower highs for Bitcoin – a uncommon signal

In a recent Bitcoin weekly analysisSuperBro pointed out that BTC has now printed six consecutive weekly lower highs, which is a uncommon structural pattern. The last time this occurred was during the Covid-19 crash of 2020, a period characterized by extreme volatility and eventual macroeconomic reversal.

The price is currently trading below the 200-week EMA and Point of Control (POC) volume, although the weekly candle has not ended yet. A POC bounce before closing could trigger a edged upside reaction and signal that the breakout attempt is losing strength.

Just below current levels is the rising 200-week SMA, adding another layer of support on higher time frames. The RSI remains at extreme levels, suggesting that momentum is already tight. When you combine oversold conditions with six straight lower highs pushing into major support, the case for a sustained decline becomes less compelling.

Beyond the short-term structure, the broader megaphone formation remains intact. If this macro pattern ultimately holds true, its upper trajectory points to potential targets north of $300,000, supporting the long-term expansion thesis despite the current compression.