At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 156.00, down 0.08% on the day, despite the release of stronger-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The move reflects a measured market reaction, with the US dollar (USD) seeking to extend its rebound following inflation data.
Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that PPI increased by 0.5% m/m in January, above the expected 0.3%. On a yearly basis, the index increased by 2.9%, also above forecasts. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.8% m/m, above the consensus, and accelerated to 3.6% y/y. These numbers confirm that higher-level inflation pressures remain persistent.
This trend reinforces the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed), which wants clearer evidence that inflation is sustainably returning to its 2% target before considering further easing. The chance of a rate cut in June is now below 50%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, while markets are increasingly looking to a potential move in July, with a rate cut of around 50 basis points expected by the end of the year.
Theoretically, the slowdown in expectations for interest rate cuts supports the US dollar. However, the positive impact remains constrained by structural difficulties, including uncertainty over US trade policy and concerns about central bank independence. Moreover, the recent introduction of a 10% global tariff has revived fears of slowing global growth.
On the Japanese side, inflation in Tokyo showed some moderation but remained elevated compared to historical standards. Tokyo’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.6% y/y in February, while the index excluding fresh food rose 1.8%, falling below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) target of 2% for the first time since 2024. Despite this moderate escalate, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that interest rates will continue to rise if economic and inflation projections materialize. Board member Hajime Takata also emphasized that tightening should be gradual.
These comments maintain expectations of a gradual normalization of Japanese monetary policy, supporting the Japanese yen (JPY) and limiting the USD/JPY pair’s near-term upside potential.
Today’s US dollar price
The table below shows the current percentage change of the United States Dollar (USD) against the major listed currencies. The US dollar was strongest against the British pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | BOOR | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.00% | 0.32% | 0.02% | -0.19% | -0.12% | -0.13% | -0.69% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | 0.31% | 0.02% | -0.18% | -0.11% | -0.13% | -0.69% | |
| GBP | -0.32% | -0.31% | -0.29% | -0.50% | -0.42% | -0.44% | -0.99% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | -0.02% | 0.29% | -0.18% | -0.12% | -0.14% | -0.69% | |
| BOOR | 0.19% | 0.18% | 0.50% | 0.18% | 0.07% | 0.05% | -0.50% | |
| AUD | 0.12% | 0.11% | 0.42% | 0.12% | -0.07% | -0.02% | -0.57% | |
| NZD | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.44% | 0.14% | -0.05% | 0.02% | -0.56% | |
| CHF | 0.69% | 0.69% | 0.99% | 0.69% | 0.50% | 0.57% | 0.56% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select the US dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
