ABN AMRO economists Jan-Paul van de Kerke and Max Raatjes say higher-than-expected Dutch GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 and solid dynamics in 2026 led them to raise their growth forecasts. They currently forecast Dutch GDP to grow by 1.6% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, with private consumption, government consumption and solid exports supporting this forecast.

Growth forecasts raised at a solid pace

“Dutch Q4 GDP was stronger than expected at 0.5% q/q in a very strong second half of 2025.”

“It was not surprising that there would be a large contribution to growth in private consumption and government consumption, factors that are expected to drive growth well into 2026.”

“The strong positive contribution from net exports was surprising.”

“The decline in 2025 from US tariffs is visible in the value of exports to the US, particularly in exports of high value-added Dutch products, but this was more than offset by exports to other countries.”

“We increased our growth forecast for 2026 to 1.6% (previously 1.2%); in 2027 we remain unchanged at 1.4%.

(This article was created with the assist of an artificial intelligence tool and has been reviewed by an editor.)