Bitcoin (BTC) sellers made a comeback on Friday, taking the BTC price 5.5% below Wednesday’s high of $70,000 to trade at $65,950 at the time of writing. Several analysts said Bitcoin is “going much lower,” potentially bottoming out in the last quarter of 2026.

Key takeaways:

• Analysts predict that BTC price will bottom out in the fourth quarter based on various technical and onchain indicators.

• Rising foreign exchange reserves and a decline in the “profit supply” to bottom levels in 2022 suggest further downward pressure.

Analysts say the price of Bitcoin will drop after June

According to many analysts, Bitcoin may extend its downward trend, possibly reaching as high as $30,000 to $45,000 in the last quarter of the year.

Related: Bitcoin’s five-month streak may not end in March, when the capitalization price will be 70,000. dollars

The shortest bear market lasted 365 days, and “Bitcoin is currently about 140 days into its current bear market,” cryptocurrency trader Darky said in a Friday post on X, adding:

“We will go much lower, it’s only a matter of time.”

Onchain CryptoQuant Data Provider he said “Troughs take time to form” and that Bitcoin could reach its cyclical lows between “June and December,” based on previous post-halving price structures.

“The historical sweet spot is centered around September and November 2026.”

Fellow Batman analyst he said that previous bear cycles recorded lows 365 and 396 days after the market high.

Bitcoin’s current all-time high of over $126,000 was reached on October 2, 2025, and “adding 365 to 396 days gives us October to November 2026.” – said Batman, adding:

“So whatever price we get by then, I think it’s safe to say it will be a no-brainer purchase.”

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s “yield supply” gauge has fallen to levels last seen in the depths of the 2022 bear market, according to CryptoQuant data.

In 2022, the lower phase lasted approximately six months.

By overlaying the exact downward price action from this period on the current chart, it aligns with the -70% to -75% decline range expected for the fifth cycle.

This suggests that Bitcoin could fall further from current levels, possibly hitting a low between $31,500 and $38,000 in six months.

School in a chain common chart showing that Bitcoin fell below its long-term true holder cost base of $65,700 and had to recover it as support.

Cost basis levels act as psychological returns, and when the price is below them, investors face unrealized losses and distribution risk increases.

A persistent position below the band increases investor stress and encourages BTC to capitulate.

“History suggests that Bitcoin is about to fall to $42,000 or lower.”

According to Cointelegraph, many analysts expect that 2026 will be a bear market year, and various forecasts predict a drop in the BTC price up to $40,000.

The supply of Bitcoins on exchanges is constantly growing

Onchain data from CryptoQuant can be seen The Bitcoin balance on exchanges increased to 2.752 million BTC from 2.723 million in mid-January. This represents a total boost of approximately 28,489 BTC (+1.0%) in 45 days.

The growing supply of BTC on exchanges is a classic bearish signal that may exceed demand.

“Until the reserve declines and falls below 2.723 million BTC, structural selling pressure will remain intact,” analyst Axel Adler Jr. he said a recent analysis added:

“A key driver of regime change is the sustained decline in reserves below January lows.”