XRP is facing one of its most challenging periods in years, with price action, on-chain data and derivative activity indicating the market is under pressure.

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After weeks of steady declines, the token has now posted its sharpest weekly decline since 2022, sparking renewed debate among analysts over whether the selloff marks the beginning of a deeper correction or the delayed stages of a broader market shake-up.

XRP is currently trading in a range of $1.33-$1.36, down approximately 30% over the past month and over 60% below its July 2025 high of $3.65. The decline reflects weakness across the broader digital asset market, where risk appetite remains subdued due to macroeconomic uncertainty.

XRP's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: XRPUSD on Tradingview

Signs of surrender are emerging as losses mount

One of the most closely watched events is the pointed boost in realized network losses. Data on the chain shows that investors have suffered nearly $1.93 billion in losses over the past week, the largest gain in about 39 months. Realized losses occur when holders of a stock sell below the purchase price, often during panic selling.

Historically, similar events have coincided with phases of market capitulation, when short-term holders exit their positions and tokens move towards long-term investors. After a comparable jump in 2022, there was a significant recovery a few months later, although analysts warn that past results do not guarantee they will be repeated.

Despite falling prices, trading activity increased. Spot trading volume rose above $2.3 billion in 24 hours, while futures volume and open interest also increased, suggesting investors are actively positioning rather than exiting the market.

Shakeout Key Levels and Narrative.

Technically, the $1.30 level has become a critical support zone. XRP it briefly fell below this level before recovering, indicating that buying interest is continuing. However, analysts warn that a confirmed breakdown could open the way towards $1.20 or even the psychological level of $1.00.

Some market observers say the current structure resembles previous phases of consolidation that preceded forceful increases. According to this view, another decline towards the $1.10 area is possible as markets shed weaker participants before any sustained upward move occurs.

Momentum indicators also reflect pressure. XRP continues to trade below key moving averages, and while the Relative Strength Index suggests oversold conditions, there has been no confirmed bullish reversal yet.

Structural factors are shifting attention towards the second quarter

Beyond near-term price action, there is increasing attention on structural changes that could impact performance later in 2026.

Analysts point to improved transparency of regulations, institutional position and planned modernizations XRP Ledger aimed at supporting tokenized assets, lending functions and compliant trading environments.

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Derivatives data adds another layer to the outlook. The number of open positions remains elevated despite falling prices – a phenomenon that in the past preceded expansion phases when recent capital entered the market.

Cover photo from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart from Tradingview