Right now Barclays (LSE: BARC) is selling for around £4.70 per share. So someone with a spare £1,000 to invest should be able to buy around 212 shares.
(In reality, it may be slightly less than £1,000 if transaction fees, commissions and stamp duties cost you £1,000. So it’s worth choosing carefully when choosing a shares trading account or stocks and shares ISA).
Still, sticking with the 212-share example, what could this mean for an investor in terms of what they can get for their money?
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Low single-digit dividend growth
Barclays’ dividend is currently 8.6p per share. So 212 shares should pay a dividend of around £18.23 per year.
This means a profitability of approximately 1.8%. I don’t find it particularly invigorating.
Not only that FTSE100 on average much higher and amounts to 3.1%, but other banks listed on the British stock exchange also offer higher rates of return: Lloyds at the level of 3.5% i Natwest for example at 5.3%.
Barclays has been increasing its dividend per share over the last few years. For example, the last payout for the full year was about 2% larger than the previous year.
If it maintains this modest annual growth, 212 Barclays shares should generate a dividend of around £97.65 over the next five years.
Given the much higher yields available even in other parts of the banking industry, the mere possibility of dividends does not tempt me to buy Barclays shares for my portfolio.
Good share price performance in recent years
So what about the possibility of capital gains?
Barclays shares have performed well in recent years. The price has increased 194% within five years.
This is better than the 170% achieved by Lloyds over this period, but slightly worse than the 209% achieved by Natwest over the same period.
Still, I would be very elated with any of these performances! Barclays shareholders who bought five years ago and haven’t done anything since have almost tripled their money, even before dividends are taken into account.
Too behind schedule to party?
Past performance is not necessarily an indication of what will happen in the future.
The factors behind Barclays’ forceful performance in recent years remain unchanged. The company has a forceful brand and operates in many markets.
Unlike retail rivals such as Lloyds and Natwest, it has a broad investment banking business that complements its retail banking business. This can facilitate boost profits when the economy is doing well, although it increases risk in a downturn because demand for investment banking can dehydrated up quickly and the wage bill for such an operation is always substantial.
Barclays loan impairment charges rose from £2 billion to £2.3 billion last year. If the global economy weakens in the face of continued geopolitical uncertainty, the number of insolvencies could boost further, negatively impacting profitability.
This may make it complex to justify the current valuation, which is above book value. In a feeble enough economy, I have seen stocks lose value compared to where they are today as the price-to-book ratio declines and some book values get written off.
However, if the business continues to perform well, the share price could rise further.
Given the global economic uncertainty and Barclays’ extensive international reach, the balance of potential risk and reward does not appeal to me at this time, so I do not plan to invest.
