Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are on track to record their fourth straight month of net outflows, while Bitcoin (BTC) is heading for its fifth negative monthly close in February. The slowdown is reflected in shrinking fund balances and bearish net flow data, especially compared to rival asset ETFs.

With Bitcoin’s price and spot ETF positions trending lower since October, investors are looking for answers to what the future may hold for BTC.

Bitcoin ETFs are dominating the headlines

Net assets held in US Bitcoin cash ETFs peaked near $170 billion in October 2025 and currently stand at $84.3 billion. Cumulative net inflows fell to about $54 billion from a record high of $63 billion. Since July 2025, cumulative net flows have amounted to just $5 billion, underscoring the keen decline in capital inflows.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. tracked seven sessions between February 12 and 19 and determined that the ETF had a net outflow of 11,042 BTC. The largest one-day reduction was recorded on February 12, which amounted to 6,120 BTC, or approximately $416 million. The sessions on February 17 and 18 saw a mutual outflow of 1,520 and 1,980 BTC, respectively. Only two sessions were positive, with the February 6 session adding 5,900 BTC to the funds.

Adler said three more positive sessions are needed to confirm renewed accumulation in ETFs. Until then, flows will continue to supply the market.

Macroeconomic data are consistent with the cooling trend. Since November 2025, ETFs have lost approximately 87,000 BTC, including approximately 15,000 BTC in February. The ETF’s total balance is now close to 1.26 million BTC, down from its peak of 1.36 million BTC.

Selling pressure from the largest BTC funds was measured. BlackRock shares in IBIT rejected to 759,000 BTC from 806,000 BTC, a reduction of 6%. Fidelity’s FBTC value fell to 186,000 BTC from 213,000 BTC, a decline of 12.6%.

Bitcoin’s price fell much more sharply than the ETF balance, while spot market demand proved insufficient to fully absorb broader market pressures.

Gold is attracting the attention of BTC ETFs

Over the last two years, Bitcoin and gold ETFs have turned leadership based on 90-day rolling flows. Bitcoin’s 90-day inflow peaked near $16 billion in March 2024, declined to $3-4 billion in June-October, and then rebounded to $21.6 billion in December 2024.

Gold ETFs have taken a different path. Flows remained negative until July 2024 and then accelerated to $30 billion by April 2025. In March and April 2025, Bitcoin’s 90-day flows dropped to negative $2 billion.

Gold peaked again at $36 billion in October 2025, while Bitcoin inflows moderated in the last quarter. In January 2026, gold flows reached $29 billion before falling to $21 billion in mid-February as Bitcoin flows remained negative.

The data shows repeated transfers between two assets. Periods of weakening demand for Bitcoin ETFs have coincided with a surge in gold inflows, particularly between March and October 2025.

On a relative basis, gold ETFs gained incremental capital as investors gravitated towards assets with lower price volatility and longer experience in de-risking phases.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs lose $166 million as BTC has its worst start in years

‘Restrictive Digestion’ Hits Bitcoin Demand

ITC Crypto Founder, Benjamin Cowen classifies first quarter of 2026 as a “late-cycle restrictive digestion” phase for equity and cryptocurrency markets.

The US Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening in December 2025, halting the balance sheet runoff, but monetary policy remains restrictive relative to market growth expectations. The federal funds rate continues to trade above the 2-year Treasury yield, while the 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 4.1% and the 10-year real yield remains around 1.7-1.8%, maintaining tight financial conditions.

Positive real rates of return mean investors can achieve inflation-adjusted returns in fixed income markets, raising the opportunity cost of holding unprofitable assets like Bitcoin.

Cowen noted that in previous tightening cycles, Bitcoin’s price fell before stocks showed stress. In 2019, the price of BTC rose for several months before a broader decline in stocks.

Historically, tough ETF inflows have followed falling real yields or a marked cycle of monetary easing. Neither of these conditions has developed yet, which may explain the slowdown in demand for Bitcoin ETFs since October 2025.

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