Bitcoin (BTC) bottomed out after CME futures speculators posted net gains in April 2025. A similar repositioning will occur again in 2026, increasing the chances of a BTC price rebound in the coming weeks.
Key conclusions: :
BTC futures, technicals point to a price target of $85,000
Non-commercial Bitcoin futures traders lowered their net position to about -1,600 contracts from about +1,000 a month earlier, according to CFTC Trader Commitment (COT) report published last week.
In practice, this means that vast speculators, including hedge funds and similar financial institutions, went from tiny to net long positions, and bulls outnumbered bears on the CME.
The rapid expansion of the net tiny position means the ‘intelligent money’ added long positions ‘at some point’ he said analyst Tom McClellan, pointing to two similar swings in the past that preceded Bitcoin price lows.
For example, the price of BTC increased by approximately 70% after CME Bitcoin futures net tiny positions plummeted in April 2025. In 2023, the price of BTC increased by over 190% under similar conditions in the futures market.
Since February, the intelligent money swing is starting to flash again as Bitcoin defends its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA, blue line), which has acted as a bear market floor during most of the major declines of the last decade.
On Sunday, BTC’s 200-week EMA hovered around $68,350.
The last time Bitcoin traded around this moving average during deep sell-offs (in 2015, 2018, and 2020), it ultimately signaled the end of the downtrend and the beginning of a fresh phase of recovery.
Related: Bitcoin’s historical price index predicts an “average return” of $122,000. dollars within 10 months
Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) remains in oversold territory, which means the selling pressure is coming to an end.
This further increases Bitcoin’s chances of a rebound in the coming weeks. A powerful rebound from the 200-week EMA could trigger a rally towards the 100-week EMA (purple wave) around $85,000 by April.
Bitcoin bulls are not out of the woods yet
McClellan cautioned that a intelligent money move is a “condition, not a signal,” which means Bitcoin could continue to fall from its current price level before a sustainable low forms.
This could trigger a 2022 scenario where BTC falls over 40% after breaking below the 200-week EMA despite similar oversold conditions.
A repeat of this 40% decline in 2026 could result in BTC prices falling to $40,000, a 60% decline from the all-time high of around $126,270.
Some analysts, including Kaiko, also believe that BTC will potentially bottom out around $40,000-$50,000 based on a “four-year cycle” framework.
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